Mobile App Index: 48.64 (8.34)% WE 11/9/12

It's hard to believe that the index has lost over 50% of its' value since July 2011, but that's what happened this week.  All of the major indices plummeted this week, except FONE, but the negative earnings report from COBR contributed as well.  The only winner this week was the ever volatile VRNG.  On the one hand it appears that the elections contributed to this decline, but there also appears to be an underlying story about the consumer as well -- has their purchasing in this area slowed?

Upcoming Earnings: 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21, 1/9/2013 AUGT, 1/14/2013 COOL.

Winners: VRNG +22.38%, COOL +1.16%, ROVI +0.46%

Losers: COBR (23.59)%, MITK (18.04)%, GLUU (11.72)%, VOCS (11.1)%, VELT (9.64)%, AUGT (6.35)%, P (6.79)%

Comparison: DJI (2.12)%, Nasdaq (2.58)%, S&P500 (2.43)%, EEM (1.28)%, FONE +0.17%

Mobile App Index: 53.07 (3.71)% WE 11/2/12

Another sharp decline for the index and another new low -- and this week all of the major indices went up.  The declines of VRNG, GLUU  (6th week of declines)appear to be directly related to news on those stocks, but COOL (4th week of declines) and AUGT do not appear to have additional news surrounding their declines.  Prediction continues.

Upcoming Earnings: 11/5 ROVI, 11/5 MM, 11/5 EPOC, COBR 11/8, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21, 1/9/2013 AUGT, 1/14/2013 COOL.

Winners: ROVI +13.26%, EPOC +6.7%

Losers: VRNG (30.75)%, GLUU (21.23)%, COOL (18.1)%, AUGT (17.11)%, MM (6.94)%, VOCS (5.42)%

Comparison: DJI +0.12%, Nasdaq +0.01%, S&P500 +0.39%, EEM +1.1%, FONE +2%

Mobile App Index: 55.11 (2.24)% WE 10/26/12

Another week of declines led to another new low for the Mobile Application Index.  All of the major indices declined as well, so it appears that this week was just a general market trend.  Maybe the Mobile Application Index was an early indicator for the broader markets again?  Prediction of upward trend for the Mobile Application Index remains, but the broader indices will likely continue to decline through the week - this maybe a repeat of what we experienced in February.  If so, then let's look for news on exotic derivatives that have come unglued.

Earning update: VOCS beat earnings expectations but did not see a bump in their share price following.  Next week is a big week for earnings (see highlighted below)

Upcoming Earnings: 11/1 MM, 11/2 GLUU, 10/30 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, COBR 11/8, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21, 1/9/2013 AUGT, 1/14/2013 COOL.
Winners: AUGT +15.15%, MM +11.47%, VRNG +1.78%

Losers: P (10.33)%, EPOC (7.95)%, MITK (7.46)%, COBR (5.94)%, VELT (5.19)%, COOL (3.67)%, VOCS (1.13)%

Comparison: DJI (1.77)%, Nasdaq (0.59)%, S&P500 (1.48)%, EEM (0.55)%, FONE (1.41)%

Mobile App Index: 56.37 (4.81)% WE 10/19/12

This week was a new low for the Mobile Application Index -- 56.37.  It also represents the second week of declines for the index, where every stock except MITK declined.  What has dragged the index down so far this week?  It appears that overall sentiment has recently become increasingly negative towards this rapidly growing sector of the business world, and Google's leaked earnings probably did improve that perception this week.  I will retain the prediction of a return towards positive territory next week.  :-)

Some of the earnings dates appear to have shifted and we're seeing some dates for next quarter already.

Upcoming Earnings: 10/23VOCS 4:05pm ET, 11/1 MM, 11/2 GLUU, 10/30 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, COBR 11/8, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21, 1/9/2013 AUGT, 1/14/2013 COOL.
Winner: MITK +6.35%

Losers: VRNG (17.78)%, AUGT (11.41)%, COOL (9.51)%, EPOC (8.34)%, MM (8.05)% ... :-)
Comparison: DJI +0.11%, Nasdaq (1.26)%,  S&P500 0.32%, EEM 0.46%, FONE 0.27%

Mobile App Index: 61.44 +0.86% WE 10/05/12

Without VRNG, the prediction would not have been confirmed -- a 56.55% gain this week!  AUGT's slide slowed and will report earnings next week.  Overall markets recovered quite a bit of their recent losses, except FONE that continued to slide.  Next weeks' prediction -- slow positive movement potentially via a positive earnings' report from AUGT.


Winners: VRNG +56.55%, VELT +5.73%, COBR +5.52%, MM +4.95%, MITK +0.93%

Losers: GLUU (13.79)%, NCTY (10.15)%, VOCS (7.53)%, ROVI (6.48)%, EPOC (5.06)%, AUGT (1.28)%

Comparison: DJI +1.29%, Nasdaq +0.64%, S&P500 +1.4%, EEM +1.52%, FONE (1.52)%

Upcoming Earnings: AUGT 10/10 11am ET, 10/22 VOCS, 10/29 MM, 11/2 GLUU, 11/5 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21.

Mobile App Index: 60.92 (6.57)% WE 9/28/12

Quite a decline for the revised MobiAppIndex this week!  The previous version of the index did not fall as far -- only 3.97%.  AUGT appears to really be in trouble with investors now as they announced yet another public offering of stock at 0.80/share -- this after the recent declines tied to patent decisions and CEO changes.  In addition MITK has come under new analyst scrutiny and has also become itself embroiled in a Patent death grip.  While the greater markets appear to be influencing the MobiAppIndex, I would have to say that a significant portion of this weeks' decline can be attributed to the performance of individual stocks in the index.  Prediction of heading in a positive direction continues.

On the positive side, key components of the index, EPOC and COBR continue to climb in a positive direction. 

Losers: AUGT (29.09)%, MITK (27.9)%, VRNG (12.12)%, VELT (10.67)%, COOL (8.03)%, GLUU (7.94)%, ROVI (5.78)%, MM (4.27)%

Winners: EPOC +10.32%, COBR +4.54%, P +4.29%

Comparison: DJI (1.05)%, Nasdaq (2)%, S&P 500 (1.33)%, EEM (2.62)%, FONE (1.05)%

Upcoming Earnings: AUGT 10/10 11am ET, 10/22 VOCS, 10/29 MM, 11/2 GLUU, 11/5 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, P 11/21.

Mobile App Index: 65.2 (0.39)% WE 9/21/12

The new version of the index, which includes MM and VRNG, went down with all of the other related major indices while the February version of the index went up.  Prediction mixed, and mostly appears connected with the overall market performance.  Next weeks' prediction will be the same: slowly moving upwards.

As usual there does not appear to be much news that is driving any price changes, since we are between earnings seasons, which reinforces the overall market sentiment driving pricing.  P may have declined due to Apple's announcement of a competitive offering. VELT appears to continue its climb since its earning reports by getting new coverage from the analysts. The big drama of the week centered around AUGT, which dropped around 36% on Monday with no official news and eventually ended the week up 2.8% after the public announcement that they're changing CEOs.

Comparison: DJI (0.1)%, Nasdaq (0.13)%, S&P500 (0.38)%, EEM (1.43)%, FONE (2.29)%

Winners: VELT +6%, EPOC +5.18%, AUGT +2.8%,  VOCS +2.19%, MM +1.56%, GLUU +1.41%

Losers: COOL (10.46)%, P (7.49)%, ROVI (7.23)%, VRNG (7.04)%, MITK (3.24)%

Upcoming Earnings: AUGT 10/10 11am ET, 10/22 VOCS, 10/29 MM, 11/2 GLUU, 11/5 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 VRNG, 11/14 MITK, 11/21 P.

Mobile App Index: 65.47 +2.72% WE 9/14/12

Prediction confirmed: The MobiAppIndex breached the 65 point barrier! This week also the became the greatest gain for the index in almost three (3) months -- 6/22 saw a 5.61% gain.  For comparison, the international sector performed the best with EEM and FONE both gaining over 4% on the week.  Next weeks' prediction: continued upwards slow climb for the MobiApp Index.

No real news on the VELT gain, but there was a related report indicating that Android ad revenue gained share on iOS. No real news for any of AUGT (biggest loser), COOL (another loser) or EPOC (a winner) either.  COOL was supposed to have an earnings announcement, however.  Earning season is coming up again.

Upcoming Earnings: AUGT 10/10 11am ET, 10/22 VOCS, 11/2 GLUU, 11/5 EPOC, 11/5 ROVI, 11/13 VELT, 11/14 ROVI, 11/21 P.

Winners: VELT +21.1%, EPOC +11.43%, P +8.4%, NCTY +5.35%, ROVI +3.94%, VOCS +2.72%, GLUU +2.47%
NOTE: MM would have claimed top honors this week with a 25.08% gain.

Losers: AUGT (14.4)%, COOL (12.07)%, COBR (3.95)%, MITK (1.07)%

Comparison: DJI +2.14%, Nasdaq +1.52%, S&P500 +1.94%, EEM +4.25%, FONE +4.75%

Mobile App Index: 63.74 (0.89)% WE 9/7/12

The prediction was incorrect for the MobiAppIndex -- and it appears that the 65 level really is somewhat of an inflection point or threshold as we're seeing another one of those technical head and shoulders patterns forming.  This time the pattern stretches out over four months, and it is really quite jagged, but I think we're continuing to see a decrease in volatility of the overall index.  While I can't tell exactly when this will happen, I am still standing by the overall prediction that this pattern will be broken and the index will climb upwards.  To characterize this weeks' decline, we actually see six (6) of the stocks in strongly positive territory, where four (4) were strongly negative -- two of which were very sharply down.  P fell sharply this week on rumor news that AAPL would be entering this market with their own competitive offering -- it would appear that AAPLs litigious nature may have spelled the end of their usefulness but what do I know!  On the streak side, we have COBR in its' 4th week in positive territory -- a real sleeper of a stock IMHO.

Relative to the main indices, EEM climbed dramatically this week on news that Europes financial support is stronger than previously thought as the ECB clearly stated their position.  The US indices followed, but flagged at the end of the week on no-so-positive jobs news -- it appears that much of the decrease in the unemployment rate was due to folks giving up on their job searches.

Winners:  VELT +5.34%, ROVI +4.04%, MITK +3.08%, COBR +2.43%, COOL +2.35%, EPOC +1.01%
NOTE: MM which will be added into next weeks' calculation would have been this weeks' winner with a gain of 8.66%.  VRNG will also likely be added into the entertainment category.

Losers:  P (12.68)%, AUGT (10.71)%, GLUU (3.96)%, VOCS (1.49)%, NCTY (0.64)%

Comparison: DJI +1.12%, Nasdaq +2.16%, S&P500 +2.75%, EEM +4.45%, FONE (0.28)%

Mobile App Index: 64.31 +1.55% WE 8/31/12

Prediction confirmed.  The index is almost back to where it was two weeks ago.  In addition, it beat all of the comparison indices as it was the only one that finished in positive territory.  It appears that while there are general concerns about Europe and the US economy, there were numerous stocks in the index that went up -- P is the most notable winner this past week.

The prediction will continue this week and the expectation is that the index will break through 65, despite the recent concerns about the global indices.  Lastly we will resume the more complete write-ups with next weeks' report.

Happy Blue Moon everyone!

Mobile App Index: 63.33 (1.6)% WE 8/24/12

The DOW and S&P500 end their 8-week streaks and the MobiApp Index declined -- ending its' streak.  This weeks' outcome appears to be mostly due to less than positive economic data that came out this past week.  Predictions proved wrong.  Next week we continue with the prediction of a steady climb in positive territory.

This is an abbreviated update.  Next weeks' will be brief too.

Mobile App Index: 64.39 +2.39% WE 8/17/12

Four weeks in a row for the MobiAppIndex, three of which as the winning index in the group.  The index is now potentially at a technical inflection point, at 65, where we saw a decline in the index after 6/22 -- the prediction is that the index will pass through 65 and continue into positive territory as an ongoing prediction.  I am not convinced of such technical superstitiousness and mysticism. The gains on the MobiApp index were quite broad again, and serve as a  good sign for further growth in the coming weeks.  Certainly as one considers the February declines and the 'great plummet' of 7/11 there remains much to be gained by the index.

EEM was the only tracking index that declined this past week at (0.71)% -- ending four weeks in positive territory.  Both DJI and S&P 500 claim their 8th straight week in postive territory!  A very good sign for the investment world, indeed.

VELT earnings this week were quite positive as expected by the previous weeks' gains.  :-) NCTY's upcoming (NCTY 8/23 9PM ET) earnings portend equal positivity given its' performance this week.  :-) 

Earnings: NCTY 8/23 9PM ET, P 8/29 5pm ET

NOTE: Due to the US holidays next week we will likely see an abbreviated report on the index.

Winners: EPOC +12.67%, NCTY +10.42%, GLUU +5.72%, VELT +5.12%, VOCS +4.45%, ROVI +1.55%, COBR +0.65%, MITK +0.21%

Losers: AUGT (9.88)%, P (7.22)%, COOL (0.58)%
NOTE:  MM would be the biggest loser at around (20)%.  Three weeks of tracking and a leader each time -- don't you love volatility?

Comparison: DJI +0.51%, Nasdaq +1.84%, S&P500 +0.87%, EEM (0.71)%, FONE +1.26%

Yes, we can call this a trend now.







Mobile App Index: 62.89 +2.6% WE 8/10/12

Overall the index moved a bit higher than expected again, but the movement was broader than in previous weeks -- all but two of the stocks ended in positive territory (including the soon to be added MM.)  This is the third week in a row in positive territory for the MobiAppIndex and FONE.  For the Major indices, this represents the seventh week in a row in positive territory for the DJI and S&P500 and the fourth week in a row for the Nasdaq and EEM.  Next week we'll continue with the same prediction:  a slow upward trend for all of the indices. 

All of the earnings reports resulted in positive gains. VELT, who won top honors this week, curiously has not announced their earnings yet -- that's next week! 

Upcoming earnings: VELT 8/14 3:30pm ET, NCTY 8/23 9PM ET

Winners: VELT +18.78%, GLUU +11.95%, EPOC +9.72%, VOCS +7.75%, P +5.86%, MITK +3.56%, ROVI +1.93%, COOL +1.76%, NCTY +0.22%
NOTE: if MM were in the index, it would take top honors with a +51.6% gain.  Last week it was the biggest loser.

Losers: AUGT (19.25%), COBR (0.21)%

Comparison: DJI +0.82%, Nasdaq +1.48%, S&P500 +1.07%, EEM +1.79%, FONE +1.81%

The graph is now past both moving averages.  Can we call it a trend?

Update: AUGT (18.68)% decline on 8/9/2012 explained

This sudden decline is likely due to the summary judgement that was filed on the Yahoo case, which was released by the US District Court of Northern California on 8/8/2012.

Mobile App Index: 61.30 +2.69% WE 8/3/12

Once again MITK takes the gold for the week at +31.58%.  AUGT redeems itself, resets its' $2/share clock, and takes the silver at +25.29%.  Scorchers we had.  The bronze goes to ROVI, who has taken the analyst whipping boy slot for the past month or so, as news got out about a strategic relationship with ... Google and their earning report was in-line with expectations.  Yes, last week I surmised a 'shift' involving Google and this week it was Google that redeemed ROVI.  In the coming week we have numerous stocks due for their earnings report -- this will be interesting.  And come the end of October (I work for MSFT BTW) there will be even more exciting news to consider with Windows 8 Phone and their ARM-based Surface tablet.

The predictions were largely correct again -- the MobiApp Index probably gained a bit more than expected.  Regarding the comparison indices, they were right on target.  Since the results for the stocks within the index were quite mixed, I see the potential for more agressive growth as a larger portion turn positive. With the earnings coming this week, who knows where the stocks will wind up, but I'm sticking with the prediction -- a slow positive climb for all the indices.

Upcoming Earnings: 8/7 GLUU 4:30pm ET, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT, VELT 8/14 3:30pm ET?, MM 8/8 5pm ET
Winners: MITK +31.58%, AUGT +25.29%, ROVI +9.75%, VELT +4.93%, NCTY +1.35%

Losers: GLUU (7.93)%, COOL (6.59)%, VOCS (6.47)%, P (4.79)%, EPOC (3.64)%, COBR (1.69)%
NOTE: If MM were in the formal index it would claim top honors with a (14.46)% loss.  I will add it some time after its' earnings report next week. I am already 'long' on MM, but do not have a full equivalent to related stocks like AUGT yet.

Comparison: DJI +0.16%, Nasdaq +0.33%, S&P500 +0.36%, EEM +1.01%, FONE +2.08%

Mobile App Index: 59.69 +1.23% WE 7/27/12

Finally -- in a week that could be considered a squeaker the predictions all came true.  The index produced all of its' gains on the last trading day of the week, and since it was produced by mixed results from the other stocks this indicates that the index could go either way in the coming week.  Prediction is that the Mobiapp index will continue to slowly move in a positive direction, but the major indices will be mixed.

MITK was the biggest winner by releasing their earnings this week (7/24) -- a surprise event that was not listed in the 'upcoming earnings' section.  :-(  COBR and VOCS did well too.  MM has been added to the upcoming earnings and will be added to the index in the coming weeks. 

The comparison indices of FONE and EEM performed better than expected which could be a harbinger of continuing this next week and possibly turning this into a trend. With the deepening commitment by the financial community, it appears that finally there is a reason to expect a light at the end of the European debt crisis debacle.  Other related stocks like AAPL, FB and ZYNG fell dramatically this week, but related stocks like GOOG and NVDA did well, so it could be more indicative of shifting within the industry and not a statement on the industry overall -- the strong advance of FONE supports this.  Lastly we have some indication that justice will be served or is being served in many of the situations where the spirit of investing has appeared to be supplanted by *gaming* -- the LIBOR work continues and we have a shake-up under way at JP Morgan.

Upcoming Earnings:  ROVI 8/2 5pm ET,  8/7 GLUU 4:30pm ET, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT, VELT 8/14 3:30pm ET?, MM 8/8 5pm ET
Winners: MITK +12.5%, COBR +7.97%, EPOC +6.22%, ROVI +5.84%, AUGT +4.94%, VOCS +3.08%

Losers: GLUU (11.99)%, VELT (6.16)%, NCTY (5.93)%, P (5.02)%, COOL (2.15)%

Comparison: DJI +1.97%, Nasdaq +1.12%, S&P500 +1.71%, EEM +2.46%, FONE +3.14%

The pattern we're seeing around 59-65 for the past two months indicates that there is some "strength" as a base.  This supports the case for the index moving upwards overall.

Mobile App Index: 58.96 (3.67)% WE 7/20/12

This is a new low for the index.  Prediction on the MobiAppIndex was wrong, but the major indices performed as expected.  MITK and ROVI contributed 2.6% of this weeks' decline alone -- there was news for a patent counter-suit and downgrades from analysts, respectively.  Despite a 10% decline there was no news on EPOC, which contributed 1.2% to the decline. Will let the prediction roll again, and expect that COBR and probably VOCS will get favorable earnings in the coming week.

Upcoming Earnings: VOCS 7/24 4pm EDT, COBR 7/27 11am ET, 8/7 GLUU 4:30pm ET, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT

Winners: COOL +3.33%, COBR +3.05%,  AUGT +1.89%, GLUU +1.82%, P +0.67%,

Losers: ROVI (28.61)%, MITK (21.24)%, EPOC (10.06)%, NCTY (7.09)%, VELT (2.18)%, VOCS (1.02)%

Comparison: DJI +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.57%, S&P500 +0.43%, EEM +0.26%, FONE (0.51)%

Mobile App Index: 61.21 (3.93)% WE 7/13/12

Overall predictions were mixed -- two of the major indices went up very slightly (which was predicted), one went down, but the MobiAppIndex took a dive.  FONE went down significantly this past week -- HTC had a bad week, RIMM is probably not going to make it and Compal appears to be sucked into all of the Apple manufacturing-related PR spin-doctoring.  AUGT was met with a yawn on their earnings, which turned out OK relative to the rest of the stocks in the index.  Unlike last week where the index was trending down at the end of the week, the MobiAppIndex was trending upwards at the end of this week  -- in any case I maintain my prediction from last week which is a slow upwards climb for both the major indices and the MobiAppIndex.  GLUU ended its' 5-week upwards streak, and the only winner was EPOC this week.

Earnings season will be starting again.  This stuff often comes out randomly but I will try to stay on top of it in the coming weeks.  Expect to see more volatility -- sometimes very telling trends -- on these stocks.  Here's what I've got so far:
Upcoming earnings: VOCS 7/24 4pm EDT, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT.

Winners: EPOC +1.39%

Losers: COOL (11.76)%, MITK (9.81)%, NCTY (8.96)%, VELT (8.99)%, ROVI (4.89)%, VOCS (3.17)%, GLUU (3)%

Comparison: DJI +0.04%, Nasdaq (0.98)%, S&P500 +0.16%, EEM (0.7)%, FONE (4.08)%

While I try not to over analyse something like a graph, I can't help mentioning that the "Head and Shoulders" prediction of one technical analyst appears to have turned out wrong.  If my prediction is correct, we may continue 'dragging' along the bottom here for a while as this appears to be a solid test of the market bottom.  Also this dragging should reveal some sort of slow moving but solid direction for the market -- up, flat or down -- I'm predicting slowly upwards.  The reasoning for this is that I believe the market is undervalued overall (see below for a simple comparison).

This graph (above) shows that GDP is now moving above where it was before "The Great Credit Default Swap Gambling Loss" (TGCDSGL) took the entire world's economy down.

The graph (from Google) below shows that only the Nasdaq is moving above where it was B.TGCDSGL.  To me this means it is time for folks to dial-in and calibrate their financial measures as we may be seeing a 'descrepancy' that needs explaining.  This is why I believe the markets are somewhat undervalued.

Mobile App Index: 63.71 +0.41% WE 7/6/12

The Mobile Application Index edged upwards a bit this week and the major indices did quite well too -- prediction achieved.  GLUU is now on a 5-week positive streak -- it's nice to see that kind of sustained climb coming back into the index.  AUGT will announce earnings in the coming week -- fingers crossed :-).  Next week more of the same, but maybe not quite so positive for the major indices.

Winners: MITK +10.03%, AUGT +5.23%, COOL +2%, GLUU +1.98%
Losers: ROVI (6.17)%, NCTY (3.63)%, VOCS (1.67)%, COBR (1.59)%
Comparison: DJI +1.04%, Nasdaq +1.55%, S&P 500 +1.93%, EEM +3.43%, FONE (0.13)%

On a separate note, it does appear that the worlds' financial institutions are being called to task on accountability -- there was the LIBOR scam, and Taibbi's article on the scams involving US public bond yields.  This can only be viewed as a healthy process as oversight is a key to preventing further collapses and the associated volatility.

Mobile App Index: 63.45 (2.04)% WE 6/29/12

I was sort of right about the major indices, but was definately wrong about the MobiAppIndex.  The decline was pretty broad for the stocks in the index -- AUGT and VELT were the biggest losers.  MITK finally slowed its' meteoric climb and the gaming stocks GLUU and COOL took the greatest gains for the week.

Spain had a brief 'crisis' in the beginning of the week, but it all ended well.  In the mobile space Google announced their Nexus 7 tablet, which now goes along side Microsoft's Surface offerings as the new competitors on Apple's block -- for the index it's all good (eventually).  My thinking lately has been that this space has not even begun to mature yet, so the future still looks bright but the road will continue to be very windy.

Next week, I expect a continued slow positive movement all the way around.

Winners: GLUU +14.67%, COOL +12.99%

Losers: AUGT (14.04)%, VELT (10.4)%, NCTY (7.36)%, ROVI (5.72)%, EPOC (4.41)%

Comparison: DJI 1.88%, Nasdaq 1.47%, S&P500 2.02%, EEM 3.64%, FONE 0.49%

Mobile App Index: 64.77 +5.61% WE 6/22/12

Not sure what to say about last weeks' predictions.  Given the average of Nasdaq, DJI and S&P500 you could say that one was correct, but for the MobiAppIndex the prediction was wrong as it clearly underestimated this weeks' gains.  One technical charting analyst indicated that likely we were due for a sharp uptick this past week -- they called it a 'head and shoulders' pattern (the sharp increase being for the sake of graph symmetry) -- and while it may fit for the MobiaAppIndex there seems to be less of a symmetry for the major indices.  Dunno about the value of symmetries, and you can't see it very well with these weekly data points, but there it is. 

My prediction for next week is that everything will go upwards, because we have reached the market bottom and the focus will shift towards making up the ground lost since April for the major indices and since February for the MobiAppIndex.  Symmetry or not it appears that we are about to move off of the market bottom.  I do not predict a major upwards trend, however, as the overall investment market will not forget about the simmering Europe debt crisis and we are approaching the summer investing doldrums.

Once again MITK was the biggest winner, and was followed by a broad list of strong winners.  On the declines side it was very minimal, so this weeks' gains were strong and across the board.

Winners:  MITK +33.67%, NCTY +17.92%, VOCS +14.1%, VELT +9.46%, COOL +5.99%, GLUU +3.64%, EPOC +2.82%, P +2.05%, COBR +1.12%

Losers: AUGT (2.2)%, ROVI (1.56)%

Comparison: DJI (0.99)%, Nasdaq +0.68%, S&P500 (0.57)%, EEM (3.02)%, FONE (1.3)%

Mobile App Index: 61.33 (2.42)% WE 6/15/12

Predictions were correct on both counts: it was a less than 3.2% drop for the index and the major indices did not climb as high as last week.  But the loss for the MobiAppIndex was rather mixed -- 5 stocks gained, while 5 lost this week.  COOL announced earnings this week and proceeded to consistently decline towards the end of the week.  AUGT announced some sort of 'pre-earnings' update on Tuesday, which prompted a continuous decline following.  Lastly P declined after an analyst report about a competing service gained some buzz from their latest iPhone offering on Tuesday or Wed -- it is back on the upswing again now.  There is a fickle nature to these stocks as the slightest indication of economic troubles in Europe as we saw on Monday will trigger a quick, steep slide. MITK turned in its second week as the biggest winner, and has gained 48% in that time.  Now that earnings have completed for a while, with the possible exception of a 7/10 11am ET update from AUGT, I predict that the volatility will continue to slow for the index and I expect it to go up less than 1%.  For the major indices, I think that the Euro crisis will continue to simmer on low and expect that it will go very slightly upwards or experience a slight decline of less than 0.5%.

Winners: MITK +23.01%, GLUU +4.71%, VELT +2.94%

Losers: COOL (20.48)%, NCTY (10.62)%, AUGT (9.9)%, ROVI (9.7%), P (3.08)%

Comparison: DJI +1.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +1.3%, EEM +2.85%, FONE +0.27%

Upcoming earnings: AUGT 7/10 11am ET

Mobile App Index: 62.85 +2.41% WE 6/8/12

The Mobile Application Index gained as predicted, but not as far as the major indices, which appeared to have bounced off of its' bottom on Monday.  The big winner this week was MITK +20.71% which appears to maintain a very high degree of weekly volatility over the past month by flipping between $2 to $2.40 per share.  I do not think that the major indices will climb as greatly next week and I expect that the MobiAppIndex will continue to slow its' volatility -- next week will be a slight gain or less than a 3.2% drop.  As new products continue to roll out for Android over the next few months there may be an associated increase in interest in the stocks in this index.

Upcoming earnings: COOL 6/11

Comparison: DJI +3.58%, Nasdaq +4.04%, S&P 500 +3.73%, EEM +3.35%, FONE +3.31%

Winners: MITK +20.71%, NCTY +12.52%, P +10.94%, EPOC +10.05%, GLUU +4.45%, COBR +1.82%

Losers: AUGT (8.18)%, VELT (4.43)%, COOL (0.94)%

NOTE: the trendlines have been updated to reference the Feb (RED) line.

Mobile App Index: 61.37 (3.19)% WE 6/1/12

It appears that the major indices are very close to a potential technical bottom -- they are at close to zero gains from 10/31/11 (DJI -0.92%, Nasdaq +0.38%, and S&P500 -0.55%). We can once again thank the European debt crisis and also thank the poor jobs report kicker on Friday for this development.  Based on this, I'd expect the Mobile Application Index to start moving upwards in a consistent trend -- hopefully an upwards trend about as long as the downwards trend.  Prediction: the Mobile Application Index gains next week.

 The Mobile Application Index experienced a broad decline this week but not as sharp as in prior weeks, and not as sharp as you'd expect when compared to the major indices, so this indicates support for them.  The big gainers from last week were the big losers this week.

Winners: NCTY +17.11%, AUGT +5.26%, VOCS +5.15%, COOL +1.92%

Losers:  MITK (16.18)%, P (15.52)%, GLUU (9.53)%, VELT (9.13)%, EPOC (8.46)%, ROVI (6.79)%, COBR (1.12)%

Comparison: DJI (2.02)%, Nasdaq (1.12)%, S&P 500 (1.33)%, EEM (1.63)%, FONE (2.54)%

Mobile App Index: 63.39 +5.01% WE 5/25/12

The downward momentum was checked this week -- the Mobile Application Index bounced and the major indices were mixed -- but overall the across-the-board rapid declines of recent weeks have slowed.  While I cannot predict exactly what will happen with the major indices next week, they may rise, it still appears that their 'bottom' has not been found yet (see below for more details as I attempt to more completely answer the question from this week).  As for the overall comparison indices, I believe that this weeks' performance of the MobiAppIndex indicates that they will begin to return to a positive trend in the next month -- but I predict that there will be another week or so of declines in the major indices before then.

P announced earnings and, as predicted, it did not disappoint -- it wildly exceeded my expectations.  MITK surprised us this week with a very strong return on no news -- maybe the 80% overall decline was an over correction?  The overall increase in the index this week was extremely broad, and indicates to me that it will return to a positive trend soon -- the only loser was NCTY.  The theory is that the MobiAppIndex will lead the major indices during the upward trend.

Winners: P +20.68%, MITK +17.82%, GLUU +14.56%, VELT +10.21%, COOL +4.52%, EPOC +2.81%, ROVI +2.4%

Losers: NCTY (6.25)%

Comparison: DJI +0.69%, Nasdaq +2.1%, S&P 500 +1.74%, EEM (0.38)%, FONE (0.33)%

Rebalancing candidates: Millenial Media (MM on NYSE) -- a new IPO, and Vringo (VRNG on AMEX) -- has gone above $2.00/share again.  More on a rebalancing update in a month or so.

To finish answering last weeks' question of "How will the markets, and therefore the Mobile Application Index, recover from the recent steep declines?" there are a couple more observations to make.  I will list them out in the form of facts/assumptions, and encourage the reader to review past postings for more details and also separately validate them.  Nobody has the complete picture when it comes to investing, but the idea is to either become educated enough about your investments to make a good decision, have some sort of "insider information" (illegal), or intelligent algorithm/technology to make the investment work.  In the case of the Mobile Application Index, the investing idea here is to utilize an algorithm that takes an ETF-like approach wherein a 'buy and hold' strategy could work.

Here is the Mobile Application Index algorithm (it is very simple):
1) Rebalance the index at least once a year -- preferrably once every six months at least (after an earnings period.)
2) Current weightings are: 40% of the index dedicated to 'unique' application stocks, 30% to gaming and entertainment, and 30% to marketing stocks,
3) Select only stocks that can clearly demonstrate a key component of their business strategy depends upon the mobile application space (software not hardware) -- smartphones and tablets -- whose current price per share is greater than or equal to $2.00 USD.  NOTE: my preference is to utilize only shares that trade over NYSE, AMEX or Nasdaq, but that is not a hard requirement.

Disclosure: I currently hold positions in every stock in the index except three in the gaming and entertainment category: ROVI, NCTY and COOL.  My sense on this has been that gaming is 'over invested' relative to the rest of the index -- many companies in the gaming industry are not publicly traded -- and the likelihood of a strong success is therefore more limited. I also try to 'time' my purchases in an opportunistic way, rather than do wholesale buying and selling when I 'rebalance' the portfolio.  Example: I bought more MITK earlier in the week.

As for how will the MobiApp and major indices rebound, here is my list:
1) The smartphone market is very large and growing -- a 47% year on year growth so far in 2012.  You can easily find articles on this:
http://mobithinking.com/mobile-marketing-tools/latest-mobile-stats
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/digital-life/item/27255-mobile-phone-sales-decline/
2) The tablet market is "on fire" -- 124% year on year growth so far in 2012
http://www.siliconrepublic.com/digital-life/item/27255-mobile-phone-sales-decline/
3) The overall major indices are still in recovery mode from 2008
4) The mobile applications that consumers use actually define the value of the smartphone and the tablet for them
5) While the individual stocks vary in their revenue growth rates, in general those rates move as a function of the overall smartphone and tablet market.  In short, the market itself is growing very fast and in order for a company to maintain its' foothold (retain or grow marketshare) they must continually invest rapidly in product innovations, people resources, infrastructure and marketing and sales.  This "mach 2 with your hair on fire" situation becomes the key to both the investment opportunity and the stressful anguish that we're seeing -- the investment community wants profitable companies and we're in an investment climate where 'taking profit on volatility' has become a critical investment strategy for many hedge funds.  We cannot expect many of these companies to be profitable at this point in the markets' lifecycle -- to do so could become the reason for slowed growth.

So how does the MobiAppIndex 'return' to last years levels and go beyond that?  With each successive earnings report, these companies need to continue to demonstrate:
1) their markets are growing and they are maintaining their marketshare or their marketshare is growing
2) their revenues are growing in kind with the overall smartphone and tablet growth -- or there are serious and credible plans to get there
3) ideally they should show that their losses are consistently declining and there is a 'light at the end of the tunnel' for profitability.
As for the major indices, I have no idea what will fix those problems -- I just use them as a relative comparison -- but I think it still has something to do with the politics behind the 'credit default swap' crisis of 2008.

Mobile App Index: 60.37 (8.17)% WE 5/18/12

Last weeks' prediction was easily achieved, and the major indices went with it by getting very close to a sideways state this week.  In the past 6 months or so since 11/17/2011 the DJI is up only 3.89%, Nasdaq 5.26%, and the S&P500 is up 4.48% and since that fateful time period of 4/3/2012 they have declined 6.75%, 10.92% and 8.73% respectively.   By comparison, the Mobile Application Index is down 16% since 11/18/2011 and 17% since 4/6/2012, and it is down 30% from its' high on 2/17/2012. I don't think that the major indices have hit their bottom point yet, but I am not sure about the Mobile Application Index.  Earnings season for the index is almost complete, but neither COOL nor NCTY have announced their earnings or a date they intend to report them.  Coming up P, whose earnings I expect will not be received negatively -- it was the biggest winner this week.

VELT declined 25.71% after its' earnings announcement despite showing an increase in revenues and profitability.  The only explanation I could find indicated that decreased cash on-hand was the reason.  But the biggest loser this week was MITK as it declined 26.81% this past week (there is no news to be found about the stock this week) and now down 87% since 3/30 when it traded at $11.60 -- it closed today at $2.02.

Winners: P 5.51%, EPOC 2.49%

Losers: MITK (26.81)%, VELT (25.71)%, NCTY (16.96)%, VOCS (10.88)%, COOL (8.72)%, GLUU (7.21)%, ROVI (6.53)%, AUGT (3.26)%, COBR (3.1)%

Comparison: DJI (3.52)%, Nasdaq (5.28)%, S&P (4.29)%, EEM (6.67)%, FONE (5.24)%

Earnings: P 5/23 5pm ET

Mobile App Index: 65.74 (3.41)% WE 5/11/12

One could argue at this point that the Mobile Application Index has gone sideways since the end of October 2011.  Will the other major indices follow?  It would appear so -- as their downward trend began at the beginning of April.  With news about another chapter in the book of financial gambling failures to the tune of $1B then $2B and possibly $3B (sound familiar?) -- including the 9.3% loss of market cap this is ultimately a $17B decline -- from the likes of JPMorgan Chase combined with the Merkozi "divorce," :-) the unrest in European countries like Greece, it appears that progress remains somewhat inconsistent. The decline of the index did slow this week, but not as much as expected.  Since we are so close, my prediction is that we will set a new low for the Mobile Application Index next week.

Forbes on the JP Morgan blunder (this links to the article) emphasis added:
"In any case, by late March, people started getting antsy about the economy and the index jumped — making the hedge funds happy. According to the Times, JPMorgan’s first quarter losses were not big enough to make the bank acknowledge the criticism but thanks to media coverage, the index spiked — and so did JPMorgan’s potential insurance claims if the companies in the index went bankrupt.

This matters because JPMorgan has been fighting the sort of regulation that would block such reckless gambles. Ultimately, people who deposit money in a bank want the money kept safe. And as long as the government has enough money to cover all the losses from a collapsed banking system, FDIC insurance protects depositors in the event that bets like JPMorgan’s send a bank down the tubes.

But what caused JPMorgan to lose money was its highly speculative trade against hedge funds that was being made artificially profitable by using JPMorgan’s capital — your deposits — to push down the price of insurance below the so-called free market rate.

Given the $23.7 trillion in cash and guarantees used to bail out financial institutions in 2008, depositors and taxpayers have good reason to question the kind of “free market” that Wall Street’s $5 billion in Washington campaign contributions and lobbying fees has bought."

This past week P did not announce earnings -- that will be on 5.23. AUGT did announce earnings, which were received negatively. VELT is coming up next ...

Winners: EPOC 6.27%, GLUU 5.97%, P 5.83%, VOCS 5.19%

Losers: VELT (20.11)%, AUGT (7.73)%, COBR (4.44)%, COOL (3.54)%, NCTY (2.36)%, ROVI (2.01)%

Comparison: DJI (1.67)%, Nasdaq (0.76)%, S&P 500 (1.14)%, EEM (3.35)%, FONE (1.75)%

Earnings: VELT 5/15 4:30pm ET, P 5/23 5pm ET

Mobile App Index: 68.06 (7.18)% WE 5/4/12

Volatility indeed! Aaannd ... my prediction was wrong. :-) Again.  MITK plummeted 53.8% after earnings, which brings the 'darling stock' down around 81% over the past 5-weeks.  EPOC dropped 12.65% despite producing fairly positive numbers.  VOCS announced earnings, but the announcement was not published until shortly beforehand -- a positive double surprise by yielding a 20% gain.  It was a major decline all the way around and gleaning sense merely from the index activity remains challenging, except to say that it is intimately bound to the behavior of the major world indices.  That 'effect' hit the hardest this week since 12/16/11, but appears to be more like what we experienced at the end of November 2011 -- there may be more declines to come.  In short, these tiny stocks appear to mean little when compared to the larger indices, but I stick by my theory that it can serve as a leading indicator.  Having said that, I think that the index will head towards positive territory this coming week -- relatively speaking against the indices or absolutely.  Like me, I believe that the market *wants* to be optimistic, but the going is still quite challenging.

Upcoming earnings: AUGT 5/8 11am ET, P 5/8 11:35am EST, VELT 5/15 4:30pm ET

Winners: VOCS +20.14%, AUGT +1.3%

Losers: MITK (53.8)%, EPOC (12.65)%, ROVI (8.2)%, GLUU (7.3)%, COOL (7)%, COBR (4.06)%, NCTY (3.58)%

Comparison: DJI (1.43)%, Nasdaq (3.68)%, S&P 500 (2.43)%, EEM (2.27)%, FONE (3.89)%

Mobile App Index: 73.32 +5.46% WE 4/27/12

All of the major US indices rose this week based largely on optimistic national financial news.  The MobiAppIndex outpaced them all, simply because it is more volatile.  Where the MobiAppIndex has fluctuated a whopping 17+% over the past two months (since 2/17), the more volatile of the major US indices -- the Nasdaq -- has only fluctuated ~7%.  FONE has fluctuated ~10.5% and EEM around 8% over the same timeframe. Even Europe ended the week with a rosier outlook, but the foreign comparison indices finished much weaker.  Having said that my prediction could be considered wrong or at best 'mixed.'

COBR was the big winner this week by climbing 14.65% after announcing earnings today -- clearly it started climbing the day before on expectation of the news.  Next week will be extremely volatile for the index with 4 stocks reporting earnings -- my prediction is that the index will continue to head into positive territory.

Earnings: COBR 4/27 11am ET, EPOC 5/1 5pm ET, GLUU 5/2 4:30pm ET, MITK 5/2 5pm ET, ROVI 5/3 4:30pm ET, AUGT 5/8 11am ET

Winners: COBR +23.56%, MITK +8.21%, GLUU +7.62%, P +7.12%, COOL +5.65%, AUGT +5.02%, ROVI +2.67%, EPOC +1.86%

Losers: NCTY (5.1)%, VELT (4.17)%

Comparison: DJI +1.53%, Nasdaq +2.29%, S&P 500 +1.8%, EEM +0.02%, FONE +0.03%

The two purple lines were added to illustrate the "wave form" of the index -- we can see a height (volatility), a frequency (rate of change), and even a 'trajectory band' (overall direction). Using this it appears that while overall volatility is not changing very much, the 'cycling' from top to bottom may have slowed down or stretched over a longer timeframe-- potentially a good sign.

Mobile App Index: 69.52 (2.85)% WE 4/20/12

Last week it was 71.57 (1.84)%, and the comparison indices behaved as expected -- they were all down significantly:  DJI (1.61)%, Nasdaq (2.25)%, S&P (1)%, EEM (1.33)%, FONE (2.97)%.

Earnings season is coming up again -- current list below.  Comparison indices were mixed this week, while the Mobile Application Index and FONE were down significantly and broadly.  Clearly volatility is expected at this point, but the downward trend focused on the index and FONE make me wonder if the major indices will experience another decline in the coming week -- certainly there were more rumblings about the never ending european debt crisis in the news this week. Let's call that a prediction. It would appear, though, that the index itself will find its' bottom very soon, however.

Earnings:  COBR 4/27 11am ET, EPOC 5/1 5pm ET, ROVI 5/3 4:30pm ET, GLUU 5/2 4:30pm ET

Comparison: DJI 1.35%, Nasdaq (0.36)%, S&P500 0.6%, EEM 0.31%, FONE (1.86%)

Winners: AUGT 4.29%. COBR 0.5%, EPOC 0.5%

Losers: COOL (8)%, VELT (7.34)%, GLUU (7.08)%, MITK (6.82)%, P (4.27)%,  NCTY (3.43)%, ROVI (2.33)%, VOCS (1.73)%

Mobile App Index: 72.91 (8.64)% WE 4/6/12

I wish that MITK alone could be blamed for this weeks' decline, but many of the stocks in the index were impacted this week.  On the other hand, the comparison indices were down, but not dramatically.  MITK's decline can be attributed mostly to a patent dispute that resulted from failed negotiations with USAA  -- truthfully the outcome is not clear but the stock plummeted anyway.  There was also a downgrade for MITK after the patent dispute was announced.  An analyst "pile-on?" Hard to say.  My prediction for next week presumes that "something is up" and the major indices will follow this weeks' decline in the Mobile Application Index -- they will decline significantly.

Losers: MITK (36.64)%, VELT (9.59)%, AUGT (7.41)%, COBR (4.25)%, VOCS (3.55)%, P (2.84)%, ROVI (2.33)%
Winners: GLUU +2.68%, COOL +0.4%, NCTY +0.35%
Comparison: DJI (0.65)%, Nasdaq (0.65)%, S&P500 (0.37)%, EEM (0.37)%, FONE (3.2)%

Mobile App Index: 79.78 (1.42)% WE 3/30/12

The european crisis came back again over the past two weeks -- this time Spain appears to be taking the headlines.  GLUU recieved upgrades from analysts and a rumor was started that Zynga may be purchasing them.  Following earnings, NCTY has dropped approximately 20% over the past two weeks.  Given the european turmoil, no predictions are made.

Comparison: DJI 1%, Nasdaq 0.77%, S&P500 0.81%, EEM 0.09%, FONE 0.22%
Winners: VELT 4.63%, EPOC 2.88%, VOCS 2.63%, GLUU 0% (also +22.47% last week)
Losers: NCTY (13.36%), AUGT (8.86%), COOL (4.26%), P (3.31%), COBR (2.2%)

The new trendline shows the moving averages intersecting the trend lines last week.  This week shows the new index moving above the previous index.  The 12-week moving average clearly shows the upwards trajectory the index has experienced since the beginning of the year.

Mobile App Index: 80.94 (0.03)% WE 3/23/12

The moving average met the Mobile Application Index this week -- as predicted.  Graph to come next week.

Mobile App Index: 80.97 +3.06% WE 3/16/12

Finally a positive week all around, and the Mobile Application Index gained more than the major indices.  The earnings season continued to bring volatility, however, as VELT went up while COOL went down -- I did not see the earnings announcement date for COOL either.  Assuming that the Europe crisis, always a wild card, is behind us for now, I would expect the index to meet the moving average this coming week.  NCTY earnings coming up next week Wed 3/21 9PM ET.

Winners: VELT +36.46%, AUGT +13.4%
Losers: P (10.26%), VOCS (7.91%), COOL (7.12%), EPOC (6.22%)
Comparison: DJI +2.39%, Nasdaq +2.24%, S&P500 +2.43%, EEM +0.69%, FONE +2.08%

Mobile App Index: 78.57 (0.75%) WE 3/9/12

Yet another prediction proven wrong -- but not by much this time as almost all of the major indices were down this week!  S&P's 0.09% increase cannot really be considered a "gain" either. P's earnings report resulted in a 17.25% decline for the week -- the analysts found much to object to (example below).  As stated previously the index doesn't really utilize very much analyst information during the selection process -- there just aren't a lot of stocks to choose from that meet the basic criteria -- but it is worth noting that currently analysts tend to focus on fairly short-term criteria for their recommendations.  We won't get into the technical accuracy of technology analyses, either. :-)  On a positive note, the analysts did give GLUU an upgrade. Other stocks in the index fell during the week as well, which can be mostly attributed to the Europe crisis generating more investment concerns -- last week's index decline was partially an indicator of this week's overall European crisis-related decline as that same pattern occurred during the "great plummet of '11".

One analyst report on P: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/media/articles/ckec-amcx-p-cbs-nwsa-media/3/9/2012/id/39806

Upcoming Earnings: VELT 3/12 8:30am ET (first thing Monday), NCTY 3/21 9PM ET

Winners: COOL 7.25%, EPOC 5.24%, VOCS 4.73%, MITK 4.74%

Losers: P (17.27%), GLUU (5.66%), COBR (3.65%), AUGT (3%), VELT (2.96%), ROVI (2.89%)

Comparison: DJI (0.43%), Nasdaq (0.18%), S&P500 +0.09%, EEM (1.89%), FONE (0.18%)

The figure below is a composite graph comparing the original against the revised index with 4-week moving average for the original.  You can click on it to expand it.  It is easy to see that last weeks' decline was not as severe as the July '11 decline.  NOTE: the revised index (0.75%) outperformed the old index (1.43%).

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: VELT 3/12 8:30am ET, NCTY 3/21 9pm ET

Reminder: P announces earnings 3/6 EOD

Mobile App Index: 79.16 (8.09%) WE 3/2/12

Predictions are made to be disproved -- and this week was a great example as we saw the biggest declines since the "great plummet of '11!"  The new index went down almost twice as far as the old index (4.82%).  The weeks' performance can be summarized as follows: both EPOC (18.84%) and VOCS (40%) announced earnings -- they dropped dramatically following -- and COBR continued its' downwards slide from last week.  Comparison indices were mixed, but the related index FONE was down 2% this week.  The analysts actually had something to say about both stocks immediately following the earnings period and none of it was 'positive' -- this despite both companies putting in decent sales figures for the period while guiding future revenue downwards.  VOCS did acquire iContact, which also impacted analyst sentiment. It was a 'broad decline' this week as only P showed a noteworthy gain.  The rules governing the index are too simplistic to warrant further analysis of the analysts, however.  Having said this, I reiterate my prediction from last week.

Analysts on VOCS earnings:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vocus-beats-estimates-guides-firm-140023458.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/407271-for-vocus-a-costly-step-into-a-new-market?source=yahoo

Analysts on EPOC earnings:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Epocrates-Streamlines-pz-1189511895.html?x=0
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/03/02/epoc-fail-the-lessons-of-the-crumbling-of-epocrates-shrs/

Winners: P +7.92%, GLUU 3.16%, COOL 2.34%

Losers: VOCS (40%), EPOC (18.84%), AUGT (8.68%),  NCTY (5.23%), COBR (4.99%), VELT(3.44%),  MITK (1.53%)

Comparison: DJI (0.05%), Nasdaq 0.42%, S&P500 0.28%, EEM 1.06%, FONE (2%)

Mobile App Index: 85.43 (0.91%) WE 2/24/12

This week's decline can be almost exclusively attributed to COBR's earnings announcement on Friday, which sent it down 20.38% in one day and 14.15% for the week.  (It is worth noting -- caveat here as I'm not trying to 'pitch' an individual stock -- that this decline appears to be due to the one-time income write-off of  $500M from an accounts recievable with a company that went bankrupt.) A comparison with the revised index, which I will start reporting next week, shows it only went down 0.14% -- stocks like MITK and AUGT weigh more heavily in that rebalanced group.  EEM demonstrates that the foriegn stocks led the way last week.  In short, it is good to see the recent slowing down and this weeks' 'corrective action' but given that is is limited to one stock, my guess is that may not have a lasting impact.  My prediction is that the index will return to positive territory next week -- it is still quite a way off from where it began in July 2011.

Winners: AUGT 12.89%, GLUU 9.31%, MITK 5.18%, VELT 3.87%

Losers: COBR (14.15%), COOL (4.83%), VOCS (4.26%), NCTY (1.84%), EPOC (1.43%)

Comparison:  DJI 0.61%, Nasdaq 0.13%, S&P500 0.56%, EEM 2.94%, FONE 0.65%

Upcoming earnings: 2/28 EPOC & VOCS EOD, 3/6 P EOD

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: P 3/6 EOD

The only company that hasn't announced or had their quarterly earnings yet is VELT, which should occur at the middle to end of March.

A good article on many of the stocks referenced in the index:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/379851-2012-micro-cap-mobile-index-off-to-a-fast-start-in-2012

Mobile App Index: 86.21 +1.79% WE 2/17/12

Once again, I missed this weeks' prediction, but the gain was lower than last week -- in fact the lowest week of gains during this 4-week streak for the index.  In addition, it appears to have moved in the middle of the pack with the rest of the major indices -- maybe the prediction was somewhat correct.  GLUU appears to have given back it's earnings' week gains and some of its' pre-earnings' week gain -- it was the biggest loser too.  The recalibrated index performed a little bit better and ended up 1.88% for the week.

Upcoming Earnings: COBR 2/24 11am EST, EPOC 2/28 EOD, VOCS 2/28 EOD -- P, VELT, & NCTY tbd.

Comparison: DJI +1.15%, Nasdaq +1.64%, S&P 500 +1.37%, EEM +2.37%, FONE +2.83%

Winners: COBR 8.05%, ROVI 6.5%, VELT 3.7%, COOL 3.07%, MITK 2.66%, EPOC 2.24%

Losers: GLUU (10.05%), P (3.66%), AUGT (3%)

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: COBR 2/24 11am EST, EPOC 2/28 EOD and EPOC Nasdaq delisting?

You can still trade EPOC, but apparently there is a de-listing notice against it.  De-listing notice is dated in November and occurred during a change of leadership within EPOC.  This appears to be somewhat of a formality for the company as it seems potentially easy to resolve, and the answer I'm getting is that trading it should not be a problem at this point.

Lastly Nasdaq has a new stock called SYNC that we will be watching as a candidate for the future as well.

Mobile App Index: 84.70 +2.53% WE 2/10/12

Definitely more volatility this week.  GLUU and MITK performed well during their earnings announcements.  While many of the stocks in the index went down this week, the winners managed to pull the index into positive territory and beat all of the major comparison indices -- the Europe/Greek debt crisis was on our minds this week and reflected in EEM in particular, which along with FONE ended their seven (7) week streak.  MobiAppIndex is on a three (3) week streak now. VELT and P have not communicated when they will announce earnings, but my expectation is that they will occur in Mid-to-late March.

Winners: MITK 25.11%, COBR 6.88%, GLUU 4.5%

Losers: ROVI (5.16%), VELT (5.07%), AUGT (4.31%), NCTY (3.76%), P (3.19%), VOCS (2.14%)

Comparison: DJI (0.47%), Nasdaq (0.06%), S&P500 (0.17%), EEM (2.23%), FONE (0.25%)

Prediction: MobiAppIndex will not have a 4th week in strongly positive territory -- it will be flat  (<1%) or negative.

On the subject of rebalancing and re-assessing the index, this is the current state of the changes:
1) stocks like LNKD, GRPN, ZNGA do not fit into this category
2) other new candidates considered were ETAK, MDCA, TBOW, EPOC, VRNG and others -- only EPOC fits and will be added.
3) BGO, which was previously removed, is back on the list for consideration in the future after it jumped 40% on 2/8 -- putting it over the $2/share minimum -- when a deal with Facebook mobile was announced.
4) The index should be subdivided into three basic categories and a percentage of the total should be allotted to each: Entertainment and Gaming (30%), Marketing (30%) and Unique Niche (40%). Percentages for each stock in these categories will be: 6% (GLUU, ROVI, P, NCTY, COOL), 10% (AUGT, VOCS, VELT), and 13.3% (COBR, MITK, EPOC) respectively.
Next week, I will begin tracking the rebalanced index, but will continue to report on the current index for a while.

Mobile App Index: 82.61 +6.56% WE 2/3/12

My prediction was wrong -- the Mobiapp Index went up well over last weeks' 4.22% gain.  We can now mark seven (7) straight weeks for EEM and FONE, and VELT is now in its' fourth (4) week.  With earnings coming up next week, I expect the potential for even more volatility.

Upcoming Earnings:  MITK 2/7 EOD, GLUU 2/7 EOD, ROVI 2/16 EOD, VOCS 2/28 EOD

Comparison: DJI 1.59%, S&P500 2.16%, Nasdaq 3.16%, EEM 3.58%, FONE 3.87%

Winners: GLUU 28.62%, NCTY 14.50%, ROVI 13.88%, VOCS 5.03%

Losers: AUGT (3.69%), P (0.72%)

GLUU is announcing earnings at the end of the day on Tuesday, but it would appear that the 28.62% gain this week indicates that the announcement may already have been leaked/communicated?  Oh greedy investors, what ever happened to honor and integrity -- and being able to sleep with a clean conscience?  MITK communicated their earnings call for 2/7 on Thursday and it promptly plummeted, but on Friday the trading activity appears to have intensified further and it recovered its' losses.

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: MITK 2/7 EOD

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: VOCS 2/28 EOD

Mobile App Index: 77.52 4.22% WE 1/27/12

Comparison indices of FONE and EEM completed their 6th straight week of climbing into positive territory and have gained approximately 16% each -- a great sign for the overall world economy.  In a similar vein, P is on a 5 week climb, AUGT is on a 4 week climb and VELT has completed 3 weeks in positive territory.  ROVI was picked up by a new analyst, B. Riley, and gave them a 'buy' rating before the earnings report.  In short, a lot of good news for the Mobile Application Index and greater markets.  The prediction of the index staying above the 4-week moving average proved correct, and the expectation that the index would show a broadening of positive movement proved true, along with the last expectation that the broader indices would not carry the index -- the Mobile Application Index beat all of the other comparison indices this week.  And lastly COOL did surprise us with a return this week -- in fact it was this weeks' biggest winner.

Comparison: DJI (0.47%), Nasdaq +1.07%, S&P500 +0.07%, EEM +2.39%, FONE +1.16%

Winners: COOL 19.34%, AUGT 17.30%, VOCS 14.11%, GLUU 9.51%, VELT 3.41%, ROVI 2.72%
NOTE: AUGT passed the $2.00 mark this week -- re-setting the counter for inclusion in the index.  Re-balancing and re-assessing the index will occur after the earnings season has passed.

Losers: COBR (3.16%), NCTY (1.89%), MITK (0.23%)

I think that we can officially declare that the Mobile Application Index now runs in a bullish direction.  It's true historic market bottom now appears to have been somewhere between 10/3/2011 and 11/25/2011, and showed clear recovery signs starting after 12/30/2011.  While we could see very rapid rises in the index in the coming weeks -- because it fell like a stone starting at the end of July 2011 -- my hope is that we will see a more rational return to its' 'true value state.'  I believe these stocks remain somewhat under valued, from the standpoint of the overall stock market, but so many stocks available on the NYSE and Nasdaq can claim the same -- another reason to wish for measured and intentional investment decisions and not the frenetic hedge-fund short-selling volatility focused stuff we've endured for too long.  Having said that, I do not believe that the Mobile Application Index will go up 4.22% in the coming week -- it will be less than 4.22%.

Mobile App Index: 74.38 (0.82%) WE 1/20/12

As predicted, the major indices did much better this week -- and they also exceeded the Mobile Application Index, but a special note goes to EEM which rocketed upwards 8.24% this week. The international markets appear to be livening up once more! There were some significant winners this week, for which I wish there was relevant news, and COOL took a beating after its' earnings announcement -- it alone explains the drop in the index this week.  Additional earnings announcements were identified during the week for ROVI and GLUU.

Upcoming Earnings: ROVI 2/16 EOD,  GLUU 2/7 EOD

Comparison: DJI +2.92%, Nasdaq 4.2%, S&P500 2.94%, EEM 8.24%, FONE 4%

Winners: P +15.07%, AUGT 11.45%, VELT 9.73%, COBR 8.94%, NCTY 2.07%

Losers: COOL (28.14%), GLUU (7.19%), MITK (4.7%), VOCS (2.36%)

Overall my expectation is that earnings will continue to progress mostly positively for the stocks in the Mobile Application Index.  While I wouldn't expect ROVI's stock to sky rocket during this earnings report, it appears that they are deeply committed to playing a major role in the Mobile Application space and they appear to be executing well as a big player in this young technology space.  For GLUU, on the other hand, this quarters' earnings will prove very significant -- in the same way that they were significant for COOL this week -- and my hope is that their earnings reports will continue on a positive trajectory.  I make no real prediction for GLUU however, as there is no information to work with but it has glided down around 14% since 12/23 (3.29) -- currently it is at 2.84 -- typical for this type of stock.

My prediction is that the index will stay above the 4-week moving average in the coming week, but it may not actually end in positive territory. I expect that the index value will be sustained by a broadening of the upward trend experienced this week into the remainder of the stocks in the index, but they probably will not be carried by a sustained upwards trend in the larger indices.  We may be pleasantly surprised by a recovery from COOL.

Mobile App Index: 75.00 +7.41% WE 1/13/12

Five (5) of the stocks in the index went up over 10% this week, while the other US indexes were rather flat.  If I were to characterize this week for the index, I believe this weeks' climb demonstrates the underlying strength in the stock market and indicates the potential beginning of a broader climb in the US and world markets.  In addition, the mobiapp index, being more volatile than the comparison indexes, has fallen further on the downswing and should serve as a leading indicator of strength on the upswing.  So my prediction is that the DJI will climb significantly next week and could beat the mobiappindex.  ROVI climbed dramatically on Friday after it was announced that they sold their Roxio business.  As predicted, AUGT continued to climb after its' earnings announcement on Monday.

Comparison: DJI 0.5%, Nasdaq 1.36%, S&P 500 0.88%, EEM 2.87%, FONE 1.36%

Upcoming earnings: COOL on Tue 1/17 @EOD ET

Winners: VELT 26.1%, MITK 24.86%, ROVI 23.39%, P 19.98%, AUGT 12.93%

Losers: NCTY (4.57%), VOCS (5.4%)

Mobile App Index: 69.82 +0.96% WE 1/6/12

Ending a 4-week downwards glide, the Mobile Application Index moved up slightly this week but did not exceed the major indices -- only EEM under performed the index.  One way to characterize this weeks' behavior is that most of the stocks in the index continued to drift downwards while two stocks in the index clearly "jumped" upwards.  FONE and EEM have now climbed into positive territory three weeks in a row -- good signs for the world markets and the smartphone technology space.

Earnings season appears to have crept upon us again -- AUGT announces on 1/9.  Cannot identify additional earnings announcements for the index at this point, however.

Winners: COOL +21.72%, AUGT +9.70%, MITK +0.97%
NOTE: AUGT ended Friday +16.67% -- so it is expected that the stock will continue to climb through the earnings announcement on 1/9.  Yes, this is a prediction.
NOTE: COOL continues to exhibit *increasingly extreme volatility* -- this time ending a 4-week drop with its' biggest weekly gain since the inception of the index.

Losers: VELT (6.47%), GLUU (4.46%), COBR (5.42%), VOCS (2.72%)

Comparison:  DJI +1.16%, Nasdaq +2.64%, S&P500 +1.61%, EEM +0.76%, FONE +1.25%

As the earnings season unfurls, the index should become much more exciting and volatile.  Given the general lack of information around these stocks, we only have the market environment surrounding these stocks for reference -- and as stated in the previous posting this environment continues to grow at one of the fastest identifiable paces in a world with economies that are recovering anaemically.