Friday, January 27, 2012

Mobile App Index: 77.52 4.22% WE 1/27/12

Comparison indices of FONE and EEM completed their 6th straight week of climbing into positive territory and have gained approximately 16% each -- a great sign for the overall world economy.  In a similar vein, P is on a 5 week climb, AUGT is on a 4 week climb and VELT has completed 3 weeks in positive territory.  ROVI was picked up by a new analyst, B. Riley, and gave them a 'buy' rating before the earnings report.  In short, a lot of good news for the Mobile Application Index and greater markets.  The prediction of the index staying above the 4-week moving average proved correct, and the expectation that the index would show a broadening of positive movement proved true, along with the last expectation that the broader indices would not carry the index -- the Mobile Application Index beat all of the other comparison indices this week.  And lastly COOL did surprise us with a return this week -- in fact it was this weeks' biggest winner.

Comparison: DJI (0.47%), Nasdaq +1.07%, S&P500 +0.07%, EEM +2.39%, FONE +1.16%

Winners: COOL 19.34%, AUGT 17.30%, VOCS 14.11%, GLUU 9.51%, VELT 3.41%, ROVI 2.72%
NOTE: AUGT passed the $2.00 mark this week -- re-setting the counter for inclusion in the index.  Re-balancing and re-assessing the index will occur after the earnings season has passed.

Losers: COBR (3.16%), NCTY (1.89%), MITK (0.23%)

I think that we can officially declare that the Mobile Application Index now runs in a bullish direction.  It's true historic market bottom now appears to have been somewhere between 10/3/2011 and 11/25/2011, and showed clear recovery signs starting after 12/30/2011.  While we could see very rapid rises in the index in the coming weeks -- because it fell like a stone starting at the end of July 2011 -- my hope is that we will see a more rational return to its' 'true value state.'  I believe these stocks remain somewhat under valued, from the standpoint of the overall stock market, but so many stocks available on the NYSE and Nasdaq can claim the same -- another reason to wish for measured and intentional investment decisions and not the frenetic hedge-fund short-selling volatility focused stuff we've endured for too long.  Having said that, I do not believe that the Mobile Application Index will go up 4.22% in the coming week -- it will be less than 4.22%.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Mobile App Index: 74.38 (0.82%) WE 1/20/12

As predicted, the major indices did much better this week -- and they also exceeded the Mobile Application Index, but a special note goes to EEM which rocketed upwards 8.24% this week. The international markets appear to be livening up once more! There were some significant winners this week, for which I wish there was relevant news, and COOL took a beating after its' earnings announcement -- it alone explains the drop in the index this week.  Additional earnings announcements were identified during the week for ROVI and GLUU.

Upcoming Earnings: ROVI 2/16 EOD,  GLUU 2/7 EOD

Comparison: DJI +2.92%, Nasdaq 4.2%, S&P500 2.94%, EEM 8.24%, FONE 4%

Winners: P +15.07%, AUGT 11.45%, VELT 9.73%, COBR 8.94%, NCTY 2.07%

Losers: COOL (28.14%), GLUU (7.19%), MITK (4.7%), VOCS (2.36%)
Overall my expectation is that earnings will continue to progress mostly positively for the stocks in the Mobile Application Index.  While I wouldn't expect ROVI's stock to sky rocket during this earnings report, it appears that they are deeply committed to playing a major role in the Mobile Application space and they appear to be executing well as a big player in this young technology space.  For GLUU, on the other hand, this quarters' earnings will prove very significant -- in the same way that they were significant for COOL this week -- and my hope is that their earnings reports will continue on a positive trajectory.  I make no real prediction for GLUU however, as there is no information to work with but it has glided down around 14% since 12/23 (3.29) -- currently it is at 2.84 -- typical for this type of stock.

My prediction is that the index will stay above the 4-week moving average in the coming week, but it may not actually end in positive territory. I expect that the index value will be sustained by a broadening of the upward trend experienced this week into the remainder of the stocks in the index, but they probably will not be carried by a sustained upwards trend in the larger indices.  We may be pleasantly surprised by a recovery from COOL.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Mobile App Index: 75.00 +7.41% WE 1/13/12

Five (5) of the stocks in the index went up over 10% this week, while the other US indexes were rather flat.  If I were to characterize this week for the index, I believe this weeks' climb demonstrates the underlying strength in the stock market and indicates the potential beginning of a broader climb in the US and world markets.  In addition, the mobiapp index, being more volatile than the comparison indexes, has fallen further on the downswing and should serve as a leading indicator of strength on the upswing.  So my prediction is that the DJI will climb significantly next week and could beat the mobiappindex.  ROVI climbed dramatically on Friday after it was announced that they sold their Roxio business.  As predicted, AUGT continued to climb after its' earnings announcement on Monday.

Comparison: DJI 0.5%, Nasdaq 1.36%, S&P 500 0.88%, EEM 2.87%, FONE 1.36%

Upcoming earnings: COOL on Tue 1/17 @EOD ET

Winners: VELT 26.1%, MITK 24.86%, ROVI 23.39%, P 19.98%, AUGT 12.93%

Losers: NCTY (4.57%), VOCS (5.4%)

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Mobile App Index: 69.82 +0.96% WE 1/6/12

Ending a 4-week downwards glide, the Mobile Application Index moved up slightly this week but did not exceed the major indices -- only EEM under performed the index.  One way to characterize this weeks' behavior is that most of the stocks in the index continued to drift downwards while two stocks in the index clearly "jumped" upwards.  FONE and EEM have now climbed into positive territory three weeks in a row -- good signs for the world markets and the smartphone technology space.

Earnings season appears to have crept upon us again -- AUGT announces on 1/9.  Cannot identify additional earnings announcements for the index at this point, however.

Winners: COOL +21.72%, AUGT +9.70%, MITK +0.97%
NOTE: AUGT ended Friday +16.67% -- so it is expected that the stock will continue to climb through the earnings announcement on 1/9.  Yes, this is a prediction.
NOTE: COOL continues to exhibit *increasingly extreme volatility* -- this time ending a 4-week drop with its' biggest weekly gain since the inception of the index.

Losers: VELT (6.47%), GLUU (4.46%), COBR (5.42%), VOCS (2.72%)

Comparison:  DJI +1.16%, Nasdaq +2.64%, S&P500 +1.61%, EEM +0.76%, FONE +1.25%

As the earnings season unfurls, the index should become much more exciting and volatile.  Given the general lack of information around these stocks, we only have the market environment surrounding these stocks for reference -- and as stated in the previous posting this environment continues to grow at one of the fastest identifiable paces in a world with economies that are recovering anaemically.