Mobile App Index: 85.43 (0.91%) WE 2/24/12

This week's decline can be almost exclusively attributed to COBR's earnings announcement on Friday, which sent it down 20.38% in one day and 14.15% for the week.  (It is worth noting -- caveat here as I'm not trying to 'pitch' an individual stock -- that this decline appears to be due to the one-time income write-off of  $500M from an accounts recievable with a company that went bankrupt.) A comparison with the revised index, which I will start reporting next week, shows it only went down 0.14% -- stocks like MITK and AUGT weigh more heavily in that rebalanced group.  EEM demonstrates that the foriegn stocks led the way last week.  In short, it is good to see the recent slowing down and this weeks' 'corrective action' but given that is is limited to one stock, my guess is that may not have a lasting impact.  My prediction is that the index will return to positive territory next week -- it is still quite a way off from where it began in July 2011.

Winners: AUGT 12.89%, GLUU 9.31%, MITK 5.18%, VELT 3.87%

Losers: COBR (14.15%), COOL (4.83%), VOCS (4.26%), NCTY (1.84%), EPOC (1.43%)

Comparison:  DJI 0.61%, Nasdaq 0.13%, S&P500 0.56%, EEM 2.94%, FONE 0.65%

Upcoming earnings: 2/28 EPOC & VOCS EOD, 3/6 P EOD

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: P 3/6 EOD

The only company that hasn't announced or had their quarterly earnings yet is VELT, which should occur at the middle to end of March.

A good article on many of the stocks referenced in the index:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/379851-2012-micro-cap-mobile-index-off-to-a-fast-start-in-2012

Mobile App Index: 86.21 +1.79% WE 2/17/12

Once again, I missed this weeks' prediction, but the gain was lower than last week -- in fact the lowest week of gains during this 4-week streak for the index.  In addition, it appears to have moved in the middle of the pack with the rest of the major indices -- maybe the prediction was somewhat correct.  GLUU appears to have given back it's earnings' week gains and some of its' pre-earnings' week gain -- it was the biggest loser too.  The recalibrated index performed a little bit better and ended up 1.88% for the week.

Upcoming Earnings: COBR 2/24 11am EST, EPOC 2/28 EOD, VOCS 2/28 EOD -- P, VELT, & NCTY tbd.

Comparison: DJI +1.15%, Nasdaq +1.64%, S&P 500 +1.37%, EEM +2.37%, FONE +2.83%

Winners: COBR 8.05%, ROVI 6.5%, VELT 3.7%, COOL 3.07%, MITK 2.66%, EPOC 2.24%

Losers: GLUU (10.05%), P (3.66%), AUGT (3%)

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: COBR 2/24 11am EST, EPOC 2/28 EOD and EPOC Nasdaq delisting?

You can still trade EPOC, but apparently there is a de-listing notice against it.  De-listing notice is dated in November and occurred during a change of leadership within EPOC.  This appears to be somewhat of a formality for the company as it seems potentially easy to resolve, and the answer I'm getting is that trading it should not be a problem at this point.

Lastly Nasdaq has a new stock called SYNC that we will be watching as a candidate for the future as well.

Mobile App Index: 84.70 +2.53% WE 2/10/12

Definitely more volatility this week.  GLUU and MITK performed well during their earnings announcements.  While many of the stocks in the index went down this week, the winners managed to pull the index into positive territory and beat all of the major comparison indices -- the Europe/Greek debt crisis was on our minds this week and reflected in EEM in particular, which along with FONE ended their seven (7) week streak.  MobiAppIndex is on a three (3) week streak now. VELT and P have not communicated when they will announce earnings, but my expectation is that they will occur in Mid-to-late March.

Winners: MITK 25.11%, COBR 6.88%, GLUU 4.5%

Losers: ROVI (5.16%), VELT (5.07%), AUGT (4.31%), NCTY (3.76%), P (3.19%), VOCS (2.14%)

Comparison: DJI (0.47%), Nasdaq (0.06%), S&P500 (0.17%), EEM (2.23%), FONE (0.25%)

Prediction: MobiAppIndex will not have a 4th week in strongly positive territory -- it will be flat  (<1%) or negative.

On the subject of rebalancing and re-assessing the index, this is the current state of the changes:
1) stocks like LNKD, GRPN, ZNGA do not fit into this category
2) other new candidates considered were ETAK, MDCA, TBOW, EPOC, VRNG and others -- only EPOC fits and will be added.
3) BGO, which was previously removed, is back on the list for consideration in the future after it jumped 40% on 2/8 -- putting it over the $2/share minimum -- when a deal with Facebook mobile was announced.
4) The index should be subdivided into three basic categories and a percentage of the total should be allotted to each: Entertainment and Gaming (30%), Marketing (30%) and Unique Niche (40%). Percentages for each stock in these categories will be: 6% (GLUU, ROVI, P, NCTY, COOL), 10% (AUGT, VOCS, VELT), and 13.3% (COBR, MITK, EPOC) respectively.
Next week, I will begin tracking the rebalanced index, but will continue to report on the current index for a while.

Mobile App Index: 82.61 +6.56% WE 2/3/12

My prediction was wrong -- the Mobiapp Index went up well over last weeks' 4.22% gain.  We can now mark seven (7) straight weeks for EEM and FONE, and VELT is now in its' fourth (4) week.  With earnings coming up next week, I expect the potential for even more volatility.

Upcoming Earnings:  MITK 2/7 EOD, GLUU 2/7 EOD, ROVI 2/16 EOD, VOCS 2/28 EOD

Comparison: DJI 1.59%, S&P500 2.16%, Nasdaq 3.16%, EEM 3.58%, FONE 3.87%

Winners: GLUU 28.62%, NCTY 14.50%, ROVI 13.88%, VOCS 5.03%

Losers: AUGT (3.69%), P (0.72%)

GLUU is announcing earnings at the end of the day on Tuesday, but it would appear that the 28.62% gain this week indicates that the announcement may already have been leaked/communicated?  Oh greedy investors, what ever happened to honor and integrity -- and being able to sleep with a clean conscience?  MITK communicated their earnings call for 2/7 on Thursday and it promptly plummeted, but on Friday the trading activity appears to have intensified further and it recovered its' losses.

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: MITK 2/7 EOD