Mobile App Index: 73.32 +5.46% WE 4/27/12

All of the major US indices rose this week based largely on optimistic national financial news.  The MobiAppIndex outpaced them all, simply because it is more volatile.  Where the MobiAppIndex has fluctuated a whopping 17+% over the past two months (since 2/17), the more volatile of the major US indices -- the Nasdaq -- has only fluctuated ~7%.  FONE has fluctuated ~10.5% and EEM around 8% over the same timeframe. Even Europe ended the week with a rosier outlook, but the foreign comparison indices finished much weaker.  Having said that my prediction could be considered wrong or at best 'mixed.'

COBR was the big winner this week by climbing 14.65% after announcing earnings today -- clearly it started climbing the day before on expectation of the news.  Next week will be extremely volatile for the index with 4 stocks reporting earnings -- my prediction is that the index will continue to head into positive territory.

Earnings: COBR 4/27 11am ET, EPOC 5/1 5pm ET, GLUU 5/2 4:30pm ET, MITK 5/2 5pm ET, ROVI 5/3 4:30pm ET, AUGT 5/8 11am ET

Winners: COBR +23.56%, MITK +8.21%, GLUU +7.62%, P +7.12%, COOL +5.65%, AUGT +5.02%, ROVI +2.67%, EPOC +1.86%

Losers: NCTY (5.1)%, VELT (4.17)%

Comparison: DJI +1.53%, Nasdaq +2.29%, S&P 500 +1.8%, EEM +0.02%, FONE +0.03%

The two purple lines were added to illustrate the "wave form" of the index -- we can see a height (volatility), a frequency (rate of change), and even a 'trajectory band' (overall direction). Using this it appears that while overall volatility is not changing very much, the 'cycling' from top to bottom may have slowed down or stretched over a longer timeframe-- potentially a good sign.

Mobile App Index: 69.52 (2.85)% WE 4/20/12

Last week it was 71.57 (1.84)%, and the comparison indices behaved as expected -- they were all down significantly:  DJI (1.61)%, Nasdaq (2.25)%, S&P (1)%, EEM (1.33)%, FONE (2.97)%.

Earnings season is coming up again -- current list below.  Comparison indices were mixed this week, while the Mobile Application Index and FONE were down significantly and broadly.  Clearly volatility is expected at this point, but the downward trend focused on the index and FONE make me wonder if the major indices will experience another decline in the coming week -- certainly there were more rumblings about the never ending european debt crisis in the news this week. Let's call that a prediction. It would appear, though, that the index itself will find its' bottom very soon, however.

Earnings:  COBR 4/27 11am ET, EPOC 5/1 5pm ET, ROVI 5/3 4:30pm ET, GLUU 5/2 4:30pm ET

Comparison: DJI 1.35%, Nasdaq (0.36)%, S&P500 0.6%, EEM 0.31%, FONE (1.86%)

Winners: AUGT 4.29%. COBR 0.5%, EPOC 0.5%

Losers: COOL (8)%, VELT (7.34)%, GLUU (7.08)%, MITK (6.82)%, P (4.27)%,  NCTY (3.43)%, ROVI (2.33)%, VOCS (1.73)%

Mobile App Index: 72.91 (8.64)% WE 4/6/12

I wish that MITK alone could be blamed for this weeks' decline, but many of the stocks in the index were impacted this week.  On the other hand, the comparison indices were down, but not dramatically.  MITK's decline can be attributed mostly to a patent dispute that resulted from failed negotiations with USAA  -- truthfully the outcome is not clear but the stock plummeted anyway.  There was also a downgrade for MITK after the patent dispute was announced.  An analyst "pile-on?" Hard to say.  My prediction for next week presumes that "something is up" and the major indices will follow this weeks' decline in the Mobile Application Index -- they will decline significantly.

Losers: MITK (36.64)%, VELT (9.59)%, AUGT (7.41)%, COBR (4.25)%, VOCS (3.55)%, P (2.84)%, ROVI (2.33)%
Winners: GLUU +2.68%, COOL +0.4%, NCTY +0.35%
Comparison: DJI (0.65)%, Nasdaq (0.65)%, S&P500 (0.37)%, EEM (0.37)%, FONE (3.2)%