Friday, April 27, 2012

Mobile App Index: 73.32 +5.46% WE 4/27/12

All of the major US indices rose this week based largely on optimistic national financial news.  The MobiAppIndex outpaced them all, simply because it is more volatile.  Where the MobiAppIndex has fluctuated a whopping 17+% over the past two months (since 2/17), the more volatile of the major US indices -- the Nasdaq -- has only fluctuated ~7%.  FONE has fluctuated ~10.5% and EEM around 8% over the same timeframe. Even Europe ended the week with a rosier outlook, but the foreign comparison indices finished much weaker.  Having said that my prediction could be considered wrong or at best 'mixed.'

COBR was the big winner this week by climbing 14.65% after announcing earnings today -- clearly it started climbing the day before on expectation of the news.  Next week will be extremely volatile for the index with 4 stocks reporting earnings -- my prediction is that the index will continue to head into positive territory.

Earnings: COBR 4/27 11am ET, EPOC 5/1 5pm ET, GLUU 5/2 4:30pm ET, MITK 5/2 5pm ET, ROVI 5/3 4:30pm ET, AUGT 5/8 11am ET

Winners: COBR +23.56%, MITK +8.21%, GLUU +7.62%, P +7.12%, COOL +5.65%, AUGT +5.02%, ROVI +2.67%, EPOC +1.86%

Losers: NCTY (5.1)%, VELT (4.17)%

Comparison: DJI +1.53%, Nasdaq +2.29%, S&P 500 +1.8%, EEM +0.02%, FONE +0.03%


The two purple lines were added to illustrate the "wave form" of the index -- we can see a height (volatility), a frequency (rate of change), and even a 'trajectory band' (overall direction). Using this it appears that while overall volatility is not changing very much, the 'cycling' from top to bottom may have slowed down or stretched over a longer timeframe-- potentially a good sign.

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