Friday, January 20, 2012

Mobile App Index: 74.38 (0.82%) WE 1/20/12

As predicted, the major indices did much better this week -- and they also exceeded the Mobile Application Index, but a special note goes to EEM which rocketed upwards 8.24% this week. The international markets appear to be livening up once more! There were some significant winners this week, for which I wish there was relevant news, and COOL took a beating after its' earnings announcement -- it alone explains the drop in the index this week.  Additional earnings announcements were identified during the week for ROVI and GLUU.

Upcoming Earnings: ROVI 2/16 EOD,  GLUU 2/7 EOD

Comparison: DJI +2.92%, Nasdaq 4.2%, S&P500 2.94%, EEM 8.24%, FONE 4%

Winners: P +15.07%, AUGT 11.45%, VELT 9.73%, COBR 8.94%, NCTY 2.07%

Losers: COOL (28.14%), GLUU (7.19%), MITK (4.7%), VOCS (2.36%)
Overall my expectation is that earnings will continue to progress mostly positively for the stocks in the Mobile Application Index.  While I wouldn't expect ROVI's stock to sky rocket during this earnings report, it appears that they are deeply committed to playing a major role in the Mobile Application space and they appear to be executing well as a big player in this young technology space.  For GLUU, on the other hand, this quarters' earnings will prove very significant -- in the same way that they were significant for COOL this week -- and my hope is that their earnings reports will continue on a positive trajectory.  I make no real prediction for GLUU however, as there is no information to work with but it has glided down around 14% since 12/23 (3.29) -- currently it is at 2.84 -- typical for this type of stock.

My prediction is that the index will stay above the 4-week moving average in the coming week, but it may not actually end in positive territory. I expect that the index value will be sustained by a broadening of the upward trend experienced this week into the remainder of the stocks in the index, but they probably will not be carried by a sustained upwards trend in the larger indices.  We may be pleasantly surprised by a recovery from COOL.

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