Mobile App Index: 63.45 (2.04)% WE 6/29/12

I was sort of right about the major indices, but was definately wrong about the MobiAppIndex.  The decline was pretty broad for the stocks in the index -- AUGT and VELT were the biggest losers.  MITK finally slowed its' meteoric climb and the gaming stocks GLUU and COOL took the greatest gains for the week.

Spain had a brief 'crisis' in the beginning of the week, but it all ended well.  In the mobile space Google announced their Nexus 7 tablet, which now goes along side Microsoft's Surface offerings as the new competitors on Apple's block -- for the index it's all good (eventually).  My thinking lately has been that this space has not even begun to mature yet, so the future still looks bright but the road will continue to be very windy.

Next week, I expect a continued slow positive movement all the way around.

Winners: GLUU +14.67%, COOL +12.99%

Losers: AUGT (14.04)%, VELT (10.4)%, NCTY (7.36)%, ROVI (5.72)%, EPOC (4.41)%

Comparison: DJI 1.88%, Nasdaq 1.47%, S&P500 2.02%, EEM 3.64%, FONE 0.49%

Mobile App Index: 64.77 +5.61% WE 6/22/12

Not sure what to say about last weeks' predictions.  Given the average of Nasdaq, DJI and S&P500 you could say that one was correct, but for the MobiAppIndex the prediction was wrong as it clearly underestimated this weeks' gains.  One technical charting analyst indicated that likely we were due for a sharp uptick this past week -- they called it a 'head and shoulders' pattern (the sharp increase being for the sake of graph symmetry) -- and while it may fit for the MobiaAppIndex there seems to be less of a symmetry for the major indices.  Dunno about the value of symmetries, and you can't see it very well with these weekly data points, but there it is. 

My prediction for next week is that everything will go upwards, because we have reached the market bottom and the focus will shift towards making up the ground lost since April for the major indices and since February for the MobiAppIndex.  Symmetry or not it appears that we are about to move off of the market bottom.  I do not predict a major upwards trend, however, as the overall investment market will not forget about the simmering Europe debt crisis and we are approaching the summer investing doldrums.

Once again MITK was the biggest winner, and was followed by a broad list of strong winners.  On the declines side it was very minimal, so this weeks' gains were strong and across the board.

Winners:  MITK +33.67%, NCTY +17.92%, VOCS +14.1%, VELT +9.46%, COOL +5.99%, GLUU +3.64%, EPOC +2.82%, P +2.05%, COBR +1.12%

Losers: AUGT (2.2)%, ROVI (1.56)%

Comparison: DJI (0.99)%, Nasdaq +0.68%, S&P500 (0.57)%, EEM (3.02)%, FONE (1.3)%

Mobile App Index: 61.33 (2.42)% WE 6/15/12

Predictions were correct on both counts: it was a less than 3.2% drop for the index and the major indices did not climb as high as last week.  But the loss for the MobiAppIndex was rather mixed -- 5 stocks gained, while 5 lost this week.  COOL announced earnings this week and proceeded to consistently decline towards the end of the week.  AUGT announced some sort of 'pre-earnings' update on Tuesday, which prompted a continuous decline following.  Lastly P declined after an analyst report about a competing service gained some buzz from their latest iPhone offering on Tuesday or Wed -- it is back on the upswing again now.  There is a fickle nature to these stocks as the slightest indication of economic troubles in Europe as we saw on Monday will trigger a quick, steep slide. MITK turned in its second week as the biggest winner, and has gained 48% in that time.  Now that earnings have completed for a while, with the possible exception of a 7/10 11am ET update from AUGT, I predict that the volatility will continue to slow for the index and I expect it to go up less than 1%.  For the major indices, I think that the Euro crisis will continue to simmer on low and expect that it will go very slightly upwards or experience a slight decline of less than 0.5%.

Winners: MITK +23.01%, GLUU +4.71%, VELT +2.94%

Losers: COOL (20.48)%, NCTY (10.62)%, AUGT (9.9)%, ROVI (9.7%), P (3.08)%

Comparison: DJI +1.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +1.3%, EEM +2.85%, FONE +0.27%

Upcoming earnings: AUGT 7/10 11am ET

Mobile App Index: 62.85 +2.41% WE 6/8/12

The Mobile Application Index gained as predicted, but not as far as the major indices, which appeared to have bounced off of its' bottom on Monday.  The big winner this week was MITK +20.71% which appears to maintain a very high degree of weekly volatility over the past month by flipping between $2 to $2.40 per share.  I do not think that the major indices will climb as greatly next week and I expect that the MobiAppIndex will continue to slow its' volatility -- next week will be a slight gain or less than a 3.2% drop.  As new products continue to roll out for Android over the next few months there may be an associated increase in interest in the stocks in this index.

Upcoming earnings: COOL 6/11

Comparison: DJI +3.58%, Nasdaq +4.04%, S&P 500 +3.73%, EEM +3.35%, FONE +3.31%

Winners: MITK +20.71%, NCTY +12.52%, P +10.94%, EPOC +10.05%, GLUU +4.45%, COBR +1.82%

Losers: AUGT (8.18)%, VELT (4.43)%, COOL (0.94)%

NOTE: the trendlines have been updated to reference the Feb (RED) line.

Mobile App Index: 61.37 (3.19)% WE 6/1/12

It appears that the major indices are very close to a potential technical bottom -- they are at close to zero gains from 10/31/11 (DJI -0.92%, Nasdaq +0.38%, and S&P500 -0.55%). We can once again thank the European debt crisis and also thank the poor jobs report kicker on Friday for this development.  Based on this, I'd expect the Mobile Application Index to start moving upwards in a consistent trend -- hopefully an upwards trend about as long as the downwards trend.  Prediction: the Mobile Application Index gains next week.

 The Mobile Application Index experienced a broad decline this week but not as sharp as in prior weeks, and not as sharp as you'd expect when compared to the major indices, so this indicates support for them.  The big gainers from last week were the big losers this week.

Winners: NCTY +17.11%, AUGT +5.26%, VOCS +5.15%, COOL +1.92%

Losers:  MITK (16.18)%, P (15.52)%, GLUU (9.53)%, VELT (9.13)%, EPOC (8.46)%, ROVI (6.79)%, COBR (1.12)%

Comparison: DJI (2.02)%, Nasdaq (1.12)%, S&P 500 (1.33)%, EEM (1.63)%, FONE (2.54)%