Saturday, June 18, 2011

Mobile App Index: 92.35(-3.32%) WE 6/17/11

A hollow prediction: the major indexes slowed their decline -- The Nasdaq (-1.03%), EEM (-1.46%), S&P 500 (+0.04%) and Dow Jones (+0.44%) -- but the Mobile Application Stock Index plummeted this week -- the second worst week since tracking began.

Winners: AUGT +17.60%

Losers: COOL (-20.5%) fell a week after climbing 30%,  VRNG (-10.6%) and BGO (-8.57%).

Another big loser, and candidate for the MobiApp index was Pandora (NYSE:P), which fell 16.25% from its' IPO valuation of $16 and 44.74% from its' recorded trading day high of $24.25.  Another negative vote for IPOs.  The MobiApp index will be updated sometime this summer, and will involve a reset of all stocks back to an even distribution.

This is the net change of the MobiApp stocks since 5/6 to 6/17:

VRNG-36.44%
GLUU14.97%
ROVI11.13%
COBR-6.85%
BGO-30.43%
NCTY-21.20%
VOCS-1.72%
AUGT-14.29%
VELT-15.83%
COOL-0.62%


The terms bell weather and 'canary in the coal mine' were mentioned in a Barron's Blog Post this week -- last weeks' view on this index merits further consideration.  This post about Nvidia, a related stock, goes on to theorize that consumers recently lost much of the discretionary income required for Mobile related purchases.  That would potentially explain the recent capricious stock changes, but it also underscores the potential hidden assumption that the United States is the driving force for sales.  If true, this is changing very quickly -- these technologies are growing rapidly in emerging markets -- and makes for a challenge when assessing stock value.

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