Mobile App Index: 59.69 +1.23% WE 7/27/12

Finally -- in a week that could be considered a squeaker the predictions all came true.  The index produced all of its' gains on the last trading day of the week, and since it was produced by mixed results from the other stocks this indicates that the index could go either way in the coming week.  Prediction is that the Mobiapp index will continue to slowly move in a positive direction, but the major indices will be mixed.

MITK was the biggest winner by releasing their earnings this week (7/24) -- a surprise event that was not listed in the 'upcoming earnings' section.  :-(  COBR and VOCS did well too.  MM has been added to the upcoming earnings and will be added to the index in the coming weeks. 

The comparison indices of FONE and EEM performed better than expected which could be a harbinger of continuing this next week and possibly turning this into a trend. With the deepening commitment by the financial community, it appears that finally there is a reason to expect a light at the end of the European debt crisis debacle.  Other related stocks like AAPL, FB and ZYNG fell dramatically this week, but related stocks like GOOG and NVDA did well, so it could be more indicative of shifting within the industry and not a statement on the industry overall -- the strong advance of FONE supports this.  Lastly we have some indication that justice will be served or is being served in many of the situations where the spirit of investing has appeared to be supplanted by *gaming* -- the LIBOR work continues and we have a shake-up under way at JP Morgan.

Upcoming Earnings:  ROVI 8/2 5pm ET,  8/7 GLUU 4:30pm ET, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT, VELT 8/14 3:30pm ET?, MM 8/8 5pm ET
Winners: MITK +12.5%, COBR +7.97%, EPOC +6.22%, ROVI +5.84%, AUGT +4.94%, VOCS +3.08%

Losers: GLUU (11.99)%, VELT (6.16)%, NCTY (5.93)%, P (5.02)%, COOL (2.15)%

Comparison: DJI +1.97%, Nasdaq +1.12%, S&P500 +1.71%, EEM +2.46%, FONE +3.14%

The pattern we're seeing around 59-65 for the past two months indicates that there is some "strength" as a base.  This supports the case for the index moving upwards overall.

Mobile App Index: 58.96 (3.67)% WE 7/20/12

This is a new low for the index.  Prediction on the MobiAppIndex was wrong, but the major indices performed as expected.  MITK and ROVI contributed 2.6% of this weeks' decline alone -- there was news for a patent counter-suit and downgrades from analysts, respectively.  Despite a 10% decline there was no news on EPOC, which contributed 1.2% to the decline. Will let the prediction roll again, and expect that COBR and probably VOCS will get favorable earnings in the coming week.

Upcoming Earnings: VOCS 7/24 4pm EDT, COBR 7/27 11am ET, 8/7 GLUU 4:30pm ET, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT

Winners: COOL +3.33%, COBR +3.05%,  AUGT +1.89%, GLUU +1.82%, P +0.67%,

Losers: ROVI (28.61)%, MITK (21.24)%, EPOC (10.06)%, NCTY (7.09)%, VELT (2.18)%, VOCS (1.02)%

Comparison: DJI +0.36%, Nasdaq +0.57%, S&P500 +0.43%, EEM +0.26%, FONE (0.51)%

Mobile App Index: 61.21 (3.93)% WE 7/13/12

Overall predictions were mixed -- two of the major indices went up very slightly (which was predicted), one went down, but the MobiAppIndex took a dive.  FONE went down significantly this past week -- HTC had a bad week, RIMM is probably not going to make it and Compal appears to be sucked into all of the Apple manufacturing-related PR spin-doctoring.  AUGT was met with a yawn on their earnings, which turned out OK relative to the rest of the stocks in the index.  Unlike last week where the index was trending down at the end of the week, the MobiAppIndex was trending upwards at the end of this week  -- in any case I maintain my prediction from last week which is a slow upwards climb for both the major indices and the MobiAppIndex.  GLUU ended its' 5-week upwards streak, and the only winner was EPOC this week.

Earnings season will be starting again.  This stuff often comes out randomly but I will try to stay on top of it in the coming weeks.  Expect to see more volatility -- sometimes very telling trends -- on these stocks.  Here's what I've got so far:
Upcoming earnings: VOCS 7/24 4pm EDT, EPOC 8/7 5pm EDT.

Winners: EPOC +1.39%

Losers: COOL (11.76)%, MITK (9.81)%, NCTY (8.96)%, VELT (8.99)%, ROVI (4.89)%, VOCS (3.17)%, GLUU (3)%

Comparison: DJI +0.04%, Nasdaq (0.98)%, S&P500 +0.16%, EEM (0.7)%, FONE (4.08)%

While I try not to over analyse something like a graph, I can't help mentioning that the "Head and Shoulders" prediction of one technical analyst appears to have turned out wrong.  If my prediction is correct, we may continue 'dragging' along the bottom here for a while as this appears to be a solid test of the market bottom.  Also this dragging should reveal some sort of slow moving but solid direction for the market -- up, flat or down -- I'm predicting slowly upwards.  The reasoning for this is that I believe the market is undervalued overall (see below for a simple comparison).

This graph (above) shows that GDP is now moving above where it was before "The Great Credit Default Swap Gambling Loss" (TGCDSGL) took the entire world's economy down.

The graph (from Google) below shows that only the Nasdaq is moving above where it was B.TGCDSGL.  To me this means it is time for folks to dial-in and calibrate their financial measures as we may be seeing a 'descrepancy' that needs explaining.  This is why I believe the markets are somewhat undervalued.

Mobile App Index: 63.71 +0.41% WE 7/6/12

The Mobile Application Index edged upwards a bit this week and the major indices did quite well too -- prediction achieved.  GLUU is now on a 5-week positive streak -- it's nice to see that kind of sustained climb coming back into the index.  AUGT will announce earnings in the coming week -- fingers crossed :-).  Next week more of the same, but maybe not quite so positive for the major indices.

Winners: MITK +10.03%, AUGT +5.23%, COOL +2%, GLUU +1.98%
Losers: ROVI (6.17)%, NCTY (3.63)%, VOCS (1.67)%, COBR (1.59)%
Comparison: DJI +1.04%, Nasdaq +1.55%, S&P 500 +1.93%, EEM +3.43%, FONE (0.13)%

On a separate note, it does appear that the worlds' financial institutions are being called to task on accountability -- there was the LIBOR scam, and Taibbi's article on the scams involving US public bond yields.  This can only be viewed as a healthy process as oversight is a key to preventing further collapses and the associated volatility.

Mobile App Index: 63.45 (2.04)% WE 6/29/12

I was sort of right about the major indices, but was definately wrong about the MobiAppIndex.  The decline was pretty broad for the stocks in the index -- AUGT and VELT were the biggest losers.  MITK finally slowed its' meteoric climb and the gaming stocks GLUU and COOL took the greatest gains for the week.

Spain had a brief 'crisis' in the beginning of the week, but it all ended well.  In the mobile space Google announced their Nexus 7 tablet, which now goes along side Microsoft's Surface offerings as the new competitors on Apple's block -- for the index it's all good (eventually).  My thinking lately has been that this space has not even begun to mature yet, so the future still looks bright but the road will continue to be very windy.

Next week, I expect a continued slow positive movement all the way around.

Winners: GLUU +14.67%, COOL +12.99%

Losers: AUGT (14.04)%, VELT (10.4)%, NCTY (7.36)%, ROVI (5.72)%, EPOC (4.41)%

Comparison: DJI 1.88%, Nasdaq 1.47%, S&P500 2.02%, EEM 3.64%, FONE 0.49%

Mobile App Index: 64.77 +5.61% WE 6/22/12

Not sure what to say about last weeks' predictions.  Given the average of Nasdaq, DJI and S&P500 you could say that one was correct, but for the MobiAppIndex the prediction was wrong as it clearly underestimated this weeks' gains.  One technical charting analyst indicated that likely we were due for a sharp uptick this past week -- they called it a 'head and shoulders' pattern (the sharp increase being for the sake of graph symmetry) -- and while it may fit for the MobiaAppIndex there seems to be less of a symmetry for the major indices.  Dunno about the value of symmetries, and you can't see it very well with these weekly data points, but there it is. 

My prediction for next week is that everything will go upwards, because we have reached the market bottom and the focus will shift towards making up the ground lost since April for the major indices and since February for the MobiAppIndex.  Symmetry or not it appears that we are about to move off of the market bottom.  I do not predict a major upwards trend, however, as the overall investment market will not forget about the simmering Europe debt crisis and we are approaching the summer investing doldrums.

Once again MITK was the biggest winner, and was followed by a broad list of strong winners.  On the declines side it was very minimal, so this weeks' gains were strong and across the board.

Winners:  MITK +33.67%, NCTY +17.92%, VOCS +14.1%, VELT +9.46%, COOL +5.99%, GLUU +3.64%, EPOC +2.82%, P +2.05%, COBR +1.12%

Losers: AUGT (2.2)%, ROVI (1.56)%

Comparison: DJI (0.99)%, Nasdaq +0.68%, S&P500 (0.57)%, EEM (3.02)%, FONE (1.3)%

Mobile App Index: 61.33 (2.42)% WE 6/15/12

Predictions were correct on both counts: it was a less than 3.2% drop for the index and the major indices did not climb as high as last week.  But the loss for the MobiAppIndex was rather mixed -- 5 stocks gained, while 5 lost this week.  COOL announced earnings this week and proceeded to consistently decline towards the end of the week.  AUGT announced some sort of 'pre-earnings' update on Tuesday, which prompted a continuous decline following.  Lastly P declined after an analyst report about a competing service gained some buzz from their latest iPhone offering on Tuesday or Wed -- it is back on the upswing again now.  There is a fickle nature to these stocks as the slightest indication of economic troubles in Europe as we saw on Monday will trigger a quick, steep slide. MITK turned in its second week as the biggest winner, and has gained 48% in that time.  Now that earnings have completed for a while, with the possible exception of a 7/10 11am ET update from AUGT, I predict that the volatility will continue to slow for the index and I expect it to go up less than 1%.  For the major indices, I think that the Euro crisis will continue to simmer on low and expect that it will go very slightly upwards or experience a slight decline of less than 0.5%.

Winners: MITK +23.01%, GLUU +4.71%, VELT +2.94%

Losers: COOL (20.48)%, NCTY (10.62)%, AUGT (9.9)%, ROVI (9.7%), P (3.08)%

Comparison: DJI +1.7%, Nasdaq +0.5%, S&P 500 +1.3%, EEM +2.85%, FONE +0.27%

Upcoming earnings: AUGT 7/10 11am ET