MobiApp: 70.63 (1.57%) WE 12/23, 69.15 (2.09%) WE 12/30

The index continued a slow decline over the past two weeks, while the major indexes rapidly climbed the first week and ended mixed the week following, as follows:

WE 12/23:
Major Indices: DJI +3.6%, Nasdaq +2.48%, S&P500 +3.74%, EEM +2.52%, FONE +4.45%

Winners: MITK +11.9%, GLUU +3.46%, ROVI +3.52%, COBR 3.49%, VOCS 3.63%
Losers: NCTY (15.55%), AUGT (8%), VELT (4.54%), P (5.12%), COOL (3.23%)

WE 12/30:
Major Indices: DJI (0.56%), Nasdaq (0.33%), S&P500 (0.43%), EEM +0.05%, FONE +0.67%

Winners: NCTY +4.86%, VELT 4.29%
Losers: COOL (9.63%), MITK (9.26%), GLUU (4.56%), AUGT (2.9%)

No substantive news appears to be driving any of the individual stock changes, and the continued slow decline for the index serves to re-inforce that observation perfectly.  No good news usually leads to a downward drift -- especially for stocks considered to be high-flying/risky.  Given the sheer lack of stocks in this category and the continued emerging nature of mobile application software for the smartphone and tablet markets, these stocks clearly fall into the high-flying/risky category.

To illustrate the high-flying nature of the market for mobile application software companies:

• Tablet sales are growing in an approximately 300% year over year growth rate -- to be expected since it is so new and there is a lot of customer demand.
• The more mature smartphone market grew 57% year over year, with Android-based phones growing to where it now owns the largest share of this growing market -- quite a feat for big 'ol Google in this spectacular market.

Let's hope that the stock markets stabilize and begin to demonstrate some growth in the New Year!  Surely there is value somewhere.  :-)



Mobile App Index: 71.76(2.73%) WE 12/16/11

Doesn't it amaze you that just after we see what we think is a formal declaration that the European debt crisis is over that the stock market tanks again?  IMHO another reason to look for long term growth and value, because the hedge funds simply have the day traders over a barrel.  On a positive note, the index peformed as well as the major indices, and because of that it glided down -- a sign that it is approaching a value point.  My hope is that the value point it bounces off of will be higher than 65.25, but it's really a 50/50 proposition, so I cannot make a real prediction. 

Comparison: DJI (2.6%), S&P500 (2.83%), Nasdaq (3.46%), FONE (3.94%), EEM (4.65%)

Winners: NCTY +14.53%, P +6.57%, AUGT 6.38%, VELT 1.64%

Losers: MITK (16.59%), ROVI (11.31%), COOL (9.12%), GLUU (6.74%), COBR (5.29%)

Mobile App Index: 73.77 (0.93%) WE 12/9/11

Both predictions were correct this week: the index did not go up greater than 14% and NCTY did decline this week.  The index underperformed DJI, S&P, and Nasdaq, and performed about the same as EEM and FONE.  Europe's debt crisis appears to be headed towards a reprieve as the EU moves closer to a lasting agreement.  It's a coin toss as to whether the index goes up or down next week -- on the one hand the performance this week indicates potential strength, but on the other hand there may be a glide downwards that would test/re-inforce the bottom of the index.  There is no indication that the index is on an upwards trend.  Let's see what the week brings . . .

Comparison: DJI +1.37%, S&P500 +0.88%, Nasdaq +0.76%, EEM (1.01%), FONE (1.52%)

Winners: MITK +17.1%, VOCS +5.19%

Losers: AUGT (14.55%), GLUU (9.07%), P (8.16%), VELT (7.69%)

Mobile App Index: 74.46 +14.1% WE 12/2/11

From a new index low to the largest weekly percentage gain -- if that doesn't describe stock market volatility then I don't know what does.  Compared to the DJI +7%, Nasdaq +7.58%, and S&P500 +7.38% it either doubled or very nearly doubled their performance this week. NCTY, with no discernable news to its' credit, set a record for the stocks in the index this week with a 57.72% gain -- I'm asking the question "Why did this happen?"  On the one hand, it is fair to say that this is a very strong bounce for the index, but on the other hand, I don't see reasons for NCTY's gain holding next week.  I predict that it will not go up 14% or more next week -- I think that's a safe guess.

Winners: NCTY +57.72%, GLUU +38.38%, COOL +17.11%, COBR +11.67%

Losers: AUGT (5.71%), VELT (0.14%)

Comparison: DJI +7%, Nasdaq +7.58%, S&P500 +7.38%, EEM +10.16%, FONE +6.71%

Mobile App Index: 65.26(9.16%) WE 11/25/11

Thank goodness for humility in the face of flawed predictions.  The MobiAppIndex set a new low this week -- the previous low was 68.21 on 9/30/2011.  Relative to the major indices used for comparison, this weeks' MobiAppIndex changes fell in line with overall stock market activity.  The Europe debt crisis dominates the investment world right now.  Other than the greater volatility throughout the stock world, a clear directional trend for the MobiAppIndex cannot be determined. Looking back over the past month, I continue see these stocks demonstrating leading indicator qualities, however.  Lastly, COBR's streak was broken -- (11.21%) this week. 

Comparison: DJI (7.58%), Nasdaq (8.85%), S&P500 (8.32%), EEM (8.76%), FONE (8.22%)

Winner: AUGT +0.57%

Losers: P (16.3%), VELT (14.34%), COOL (14.05%), GLUU (11.44%), COBR (11.21%), MITK (7.94%), ROVI (5.76%)

Mobile App Index: 71.84(5.25%) WE 11/18/11

Predictions are on hold for now -- earnings and related announcements led to MITK (16.96%) and VELT (1.28%).  MITK missed its' earnings estimate and will raise more capitol via another public offering.  While VELT missed its' earnings estimate, it completed a key acquisition of the Mobile Interactive Group. COBR continues its streak. In addition, the european debt crisis continues to influence volatility.

Comparison: DJI (2.94%), Nasdaq (3.94%), S&P500 (3.81%), EEM (2.62%), FONE (1.25%)

Upcoming earnings: P on 11/22

Winners: COBR +11.03%, VOCS +4.03%

Losers: AUGT (20.91%), MITK (16.96%), GLUU (8.66%), COOL (7.55%), ROVI (7.32%)

Mobile App Index: 75.83(6.91%) WE 11/11/11

The best thing about a prediction is when it is proven completely wrong -- the index plumeted almost 7%  ending the streak.  Next weeks' prediction is that the index will head back upwards, however.  Two key events contributed to this weeks' decline: ROVI's earnings report and AUGT's announcement that it will hold another public offering.  While ROVI met its' earnings goal of 0.63 per share, it also announced that its' profits declined dramatically from the year prior due to increased expenses.  The overall market experienced more investment drama due to the crises in Greece and Italy.

Earnings coming up: MITK 11/14 (announced on 11/8), VELT 11/15

Comparison: DJI +1.41%, Nasdaq (0.28%), S&P500 +0.85%, EEM +3.02%, FONE (1.41%)

Winners: COBR +12.4% (positive earnings, and streak continues 11 of 12 weeks), VELT +17.28%

Losers: ROVI (38.2%), AUGT (24.14%), P (9.66%), MITK (4.02%), GLUU (4.29%), NCTY (8.49%), VOCS (4.93%)
NOTE: COOL's streak was ended too.

Groupon (GRPN) IPO'd this week and has seen its stock settle into negative territory, ending down 7% at $24.25 (Market Cap @ $15.5B) for the week.  This stock will be considered for the index in the New Year, and the index will be rebalanced at that point as well.