Mobile App Index: 79.78 (1.42)% WE 3/30/12

The european crisis came back again over the past two weeks -- this time Spain appears to be taking the headlines.  GLUU recieved upgrades from analysts and a rumor was started that Zynga may be purchasing them.  Following earnings, NCTY has dropped approximately 20% over the past two weeks.  Given the european turmoil, no predictions are made.

Comparison: DJI 1%, Nasdaq 0.77%, S&P500 0.81%, EEM 0.09%, FONE 0.22%
Winners: VELT 4.63%, EPOC 2.88%, VOCS 2.63%, GLUU 0% (also +22.47% last week)
Losers: NCTY (13.36%), AUGT (8.86%), COOL (4.26%), P (3.31%), COBR (2.2%)

The new trendline shows the moving averages intersecting the trend lines last week.  This week shows the new index moving above the previous index.  The 12-week moving average clearly shows the upwards trajectory the index has experienced since the beginning of the year.

Mobile App Index: 80.94 (0.03)% WE 3/23/12

The moving average met the Mobile Application Index this week -- as predicted.  Graph to come next week.

Mobile App Index: 80.97 +3.06% WE 3/16/12

Finally a positive week all around, and the Mobile Application Index gained more than the major indices.  The earnings season continued to bring volatility, however, as VELT went up while COOL went down -- I did not see the earnings announcement date for COOL either.  Assuming that the Europe crisis, always a wild card, is behind us for now, I would expect the index to meet the moving average this coming week.  NCTY earnings coming up next week Wed 3/21 9PM ET.

Winners: VELT +36.46%, AUGT +13.4%
Losers: P (10.26%), VOCS (7.91%), COOL (7.12%), EPOC (6.22%)
Comparison: DJI +2.39%, Nasdaq +2.24%, S&P500 +2.43%, EEM +0.69%, FONE +2.08%

Mobile App Index: 78.57 (0.75%) WE 3/9/12

Yet another prediction proven wrong -- but not by much this time as almost all of the major indices were down this week!  S&P's 0.09% increase cannot really be considered a "gain" either. P's earnings report resulted in a 17.25% decline for the week -- the analysts found much to object to (example below).  As stated previously the index doesn't really utilize very much analyst information during the selection process -- there just aren't a lot of stocks to choose from that meet the basic criteria -- but it is worth noting that currently analysts tend to focus on fairly short-term criteria for their recommendations.  We won't get into the technical accuracy of technology analyses, either. :-)  On a positive note, the analysts did give GLUU an upgrade. Other stocks in the index fell during the week as well, which can be mostly attributed to the Europe crisis generating more investment concerns -- last week's index decline was partially an indicator of this week's overall European crisis-related decline as that same pattern occurred during the "great plummet of '11".

One analyst report on P: http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/media/articles/ckec-amcx-p-cbs-nwsa-media/3/9/2012/id/39806

Upcoming Earnings: VELT 3/12 8:30am ET (first thing Monday), NCTY 3/21 9PM ET

Winners: COOL 7.25%, EPOC 5.24%, VOCS 4.73%, MITK 4.74%

Losers: P (17.27%), GLUU (5.66%), COBR (3.65%), AUGT (3%), VELT (2.96%), ROVI (2.89%)

Comparison: DJI (0.43%), Nasdaq (0.18%), S&P500 +0.09%, EEM (1.89%), FONE (0.18%)

The figure below is a composite graph comparing the original against the revised index with 4-week moving average for the original.  You can click on it to expand it.  It is easy to see that last weeks' decline was not as severe as the July '11 decline.  NOTE: the revised index (0.75%) outperformed the old index (1.43%).

Mobile App Index: Additional earnings date: VELT 3/12 8:30am ET, NCTY 3/21 9pm ET

Reminder: P announces earnings 3/6 EOD

Mobile App Index: 79.16 (8.09%) WE 3/2/12

Predictions are made to be disproved -- and this week was a great example as we saw the biggest declines since the "great plummet of '11!"  The new index went down almost twice as far as the old index (4.82%).  The weeks' performance can be summarized as follows: both EPOC (18.84%) and VOCS (40%) announced earnings -- they dropped dramatically following -- and COBR continued its' downwards slide from last week.  Comparison indices were mixed, but the related index FONE was down 2% this week.  The analysts actually had something to say about both stocks immediately following the earnings period and none of it was 'positive' -- this despite both companies putting in decent sales figures for the period while guiding future revenue downwards.  VOCS did acquire iContact, which also impacted analyst sentiment. It was a 'broad decline' this week as only P showed a noteworthy gain.  The rules governing the index are too simplistic to warrant further analysis of the analysts, however.  Having said this, I reiterate my prediction from last week.

Analysts on VOCS earnings:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/vocus-beats-estimates-guides-firm-140023458.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/407271-for-vocus-a-costly-step-into-a-new-market?source=yahoo

Analysts on EPOC earnings:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Epocrates-Streamlines-pz-1189511895.html?x=0
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericsavitz/2012/03/02/epoc-fail-the-lessons-of-the-crumbling-of-epocrates-shrs/

Winners: P +7.92%, GLUU 3.16%, COOL 2.34%

Losers: VOCS (40%), EPOC (18.84%), AUGT (8.68%),  NCTY (5.23%), COBR (4.99%), VELT(3.44%),  MITK (1.53%)

Comparison: DJI (0.05%), Nasdaq 0.42%, S&P500 0.28%, EEM 1.06%, FONE (2%)